West can Prompt Azerbaijan to Solve Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict by Force: Russian Political Expert
Russia, Moscow, 29 August /corr. Trend R.Agayev / There are threats that the West fully may push the leadership of Azerbaijan to forcibly settle the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, said the Director of the Globalization Problems Institute, Mikhail Delyagin.
According to him, in the present stage the ratio of forces in the zone of Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict has strongly changed. "West's encouraging Azerbaijan to war will be not the achievement of military success, but exactly that Russia, traditionally sympathized with the Armenians, expressed its sympathy, finally quarreled with Azerbaijan and thus lost any influence on it, as it lost in Georgia," Delyagin said at the briefing of politicians in Moscow "Russia-Georgia- USA: war for the resources?".
According to him, the energy component was and is the main reason for the war of Russia with Georgia. Delyagin considers that Mikhail Saakashvili had solid guarantees at the high political level in the political and information support, which obtained unconditionally. But, in the opinion politician, some people, overstepping their authorities, gave it other guarantees of military support and non-intervention of Russia in this process.
Delyagin noted that the reason for this unconditional support to Georgia in the world is not Russophobia, but clear strategic task and concrete interest that the gas of Central Asia would go to Europe by-passing Russia. In particular, this can be realized due to construction of gas pipeline Nabucco, and also Trans-Caspian pipeline, which beyond Russia, can go only via the territory of Azerbaijan and Georgia. "The West imposed task to minimize the influence Russian Federation on these two countries, i.e. Russia never could have influence, even theoretically, on these countries," he said.
The politician considers that due to the reasonable position of the Government of Azerbaijan, which demonstrated in the conflict of Russia with Georgia, the importance of Azerbaijan undoubtedly strengthened. In Delyagin's opinion, experiment with the distribution of the Russian passports to the inhabitants of unrecognized formations will never be repeated due to internal political reasons. In addition, Russia does not have such people, who would live in the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh and would be divided as Ossetians. Therefore, it is not worthwhile to fear this.
"Azerbaijani leadership has always taken balanced and reasonable policy in the hardest times of our relations, but now the wounds bleed less than they bled then. And if Azerbaijan does not fall under influence of provocations of developed countries, which will be carried out in its relations after some time, everything will be good," he said and added that Russia can not take active position in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict as it has close ties with both parties.
According to Delyagin, if Russia acted in a right way toward Georgia, then it would be necessary not only to catch those guilty for genocide, but also to submit them to the International Court, but also to assess the actions of Georgia as a display of international terrorism and to try to destroy Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline as an instrument of financing of international terrorism.
According to expert, there are discussions going on in West on how to achieve international isolation of Russia, but West will not be able to punish Russia as it desires. "In any case Russia should forget about South Stream project and North Stream project would be better to be frozen for several years. It is not so bad, as we should think how to meet out own demands under such dynamics of gas production," he added.
The expert said that the inefficiency of West's intentions is that it will lead to the isolation of Europe itself. "Besides, one should not expect record oil prices as the price of 'black gold' will increase gradually and can total to not more than $125 a barrel in autumn. The oil output in Russia dropped by 1.5% a month as a result of July but gas output increases as much as this amount due to the internal reserves," Delyagin said.
According to political expert, the world becomes bipolar, but not in the scheme of US-Russia, but that of US-China as in this situation US fulfils the role that SSSR played once. "China gradually takes a lead not only in Shanghai Cooperation Organization, but also in Central Asia and Russia in this case can take balance of powers as after some time even nuclear potential of Russia will not be taken into consideration," Mikhail Delyagin, director of Globalization Problems Institute said.
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