Forecast on employment increase

The negative tendencies, which broken out in the world markets due to the financial crisis, will not affect the domestic labor market in 2009. Just against, we will be the witnesses of the mass involvement of the unemployed population in the labor projects.

The forecast of the Government of Azerbaijan regarding the indices of employment in 2009 (see the attachment to the packet of 2009 Public budget) shows that the volume of employment in the economic sector of the country next year will increase in the Republic by 1.7% as compared to the expected index of 2008 (4,072,300) and will compose 4,140,800 people. This was caused by an increase in the number of economically active population, which in turn depends on an increase in the number of population. The increase in 2009 is expected on both indices and it will reach correspondingly 4,425,000 and 8,823,700 people.

Large part or 26.4% of labor capable population of the country will be involved in the sphere of agriculture. Presence of the private land plots transfers them to the category of employed people. But the seasonal character of the earnings from sale of agricultural products forces the villagers to find a constant work and the stable wages. It is testified by the fact that each year the specific weight of those employed in the agrarian sector of the country decreases each year. Thus, in 2006 29.3% of labor force was involved in the agriculture, 2007- 26.8%, and as a result of 2008, 26.7% is forecasted.

Other large sphere of involvement of labor force is the trade and repair of cars and devices. In future, 677,300 people will function in this sphere as compared to 661,600 engaged in this sector in 2008. According to the data by the State Statistics Committee, in January to September, 32.6% of the enterprises in Azerbaijan were engaged in the whole-sale trade, repair of transport means, domestic devices.

The third place for employment in the economy of the country belongs to the sphere of education, where, according to the forecasts, 344,300 people will work next year, half a percent more than in 2008. The construction of new schools in the country makes demand for additional personnel in this sphere. The bill on 2009 Public budget envisages AZN 1352.2mln for the education, 21.2% more than the expenditures of 2008 Public budget.

The number of those employed in the sphere of health and social services will grow from 184,500 people in 2008 to 187,500 people 2009. The increase is connected mainly with the expansion of dispensary-clinical institutions. At the same time, it should be noted that according to the forecasts of government, over next four years, the number of doctors and nurses in the country will remain unchanged - respectively, 28658 and 57500 people.

Additional working hands will be demanded also in the industrial sector of the country. The forecasts of government show that next year the increase in the employment by 9.3% (from 210,700 to 230,300 people) is expected in the processing industry, whereas in the extractive industry the increase will be 1.96% (from 45,800 to 46,700 people).

The tendency of increase in the employment continues in the sphere of the construction, where this index will be 229,700 people in 2009, which is 0.8% more than the index of the present year. This forecast is connected with the construction boom, observed in the country already for several years. The specific weight of the construction sector in GDP will be 7.9% in 2009 as compared to 6.6% this year. In 2009 129,900 people will be involved in this sphere, which is 3% more than expected in 2008, 8% more than 2007, and 21.7% than 2006.

Some 49,300 people will be employed in the sphere of electricity, gas and water supply, an increase of 5% from the figure forecasted for 2008.

The greatest need for the labor force will always be observed the spheres of the permanently developing medium and small business. Thus, next year the restaurant and hotel business will involve 28,300 people, transport, store and communication - 210,300 people. It should be noted that in the dynamically developing sector of economy of Azerbaijan - telecommunication - the volume of employment grew during the year by 7.3% and reached 21,000 people.

Next year, 21,900 people will be involved in the most highly-paid sector of economy - financial mediation, which in 15.9% more than the number of those employed in 2008.

The traditionally forecasted reductions of workplaces in the sector of state administration and protection and in the social welfare will not take place next year. Just against, 276,900 people will be employed here, which is 0.65% more than the number expected in 2008.

Despite the supposed increase in the workplaces in 2009, the governmental forecasts indicate that next year the number of people having official status of unemployment will increase by 9.1% to 63,200 people from 57,900 people forecasted as a result of 2008. Over the past nine months, 44,700 people were registered as unemployed.

In January to September, the number of unemployed reduced by 11.4% and by 0.2% in September. Three people pretend to one vacancy. The tendency in the reduction of officially-registered unemployed persons has been observed since April, 2006. Different labour fairs, organized and held by the Ministry of Labour and Social Protection of the Population, and the opening of new jobs all around the country have played their great role in this process.

The proportion of unemployed and economically active people will reach 1.43%. This figure reflects only the number of officially registered unemployed. However, experts say the number of unemployed people is more than official figures. Therefore, it is complicated to asses the extent of a work that will be carried out.

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