Experts: Difficult to name presidential candidate in case of change of power in Kyrgyzstan

Azerbaijan, Baku, April 7 /Trend, V.Zhavoronkova/

If the power in Kyrgyzstan is replaced, it is difficult to say exactly who will take the office of the head of state, experts say.

The disorders have been covering Kyrgyzstan for already the second day, which began yesterday in the Talas city, after opposition came together at the local administration building. The participants demanded the resignation of the governor of Talas oblast Beishenbek Bolotbekov. The protesters also opposed the governance of President Kurmanbek Bakiyev. Morning the disorder descended to Bishkek, where the opposition clashed with police.

The state of emergency was declared in Kyrgyzstan, several opposition leaders have been arrested, there are wounded and killed amongst protesters, several state institutions have been seized.

Experts believe that the riots in the country can bring to the replacement of the power in the country.

"I think in Kyrgyzstan happens this that is commonly called the preparation for the seizure of power by opponents of the leadership, a coup, which this time is more spontaneous than it seemed five years ago," said Arkady Dubnov, an international commentator of Vremya Novostey (Time of News) newspaper in an interview with Echo Moscow radio.

Killing of protesters today in Bishkek changes everything, says U.S. expert on Central Asia Bruce Pannier. "I can see little chance that Kurmanbek Bakiyev will hold on to power now. There is no one else to blame for what is happening except Bakiyev," Pannier, expert of the Radio Liberty, wrote in an e-mail to Trend. 

Leonid Gusev, Senior Fellow at the Institute of International Studies of the Russian Foreign Ministry's Moscow State Institute of the International Relations, also believes that a revolution can happen, as it was five years ago in 2005 during the "Tulip Revolution", as a result of which, the current president of the country came to power.

"But all depend on how the army and riot police behave, whom they still support, and much depends on how the opposition will behave, whether they are not falter," Russian expert on Central Asia Gusev told Trend via e-mail.

However, experts say the question remains open who can replace Bakiyev.

"Who could replace him [Bakiyev] is a big question. There are a few opposition figures who could take over, but they are mostly being detained right now," Pannier said.

According to Gusev, there are representatives of the opposition, as Rosa Otunbayeva, Temir Sariev and others who were at any given time in the leadership, but who of them will play the first role is not clear yet.

This is a very unfortunate event not only for Kyrgyzstan but for Central Asia, Pannier believes.

"The result of whatever happens in Kyrgyzstan will be that neighboring countries will crack down or at least closely monitor anything that looks like opposition activity," he said.

According to the expert, the neighboring countries will tighten legislation on public rallies or demonstrations and authorities will move very quickly to stop any protests that do break out.

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