Experts: Iran's decision to freeze talks will not affect further development of events

Experts: Iran's decision to freeze talks will not affect further development of events

Azerbaijan, Baku, July 1 / Trend T.Konyayeva /

Tehran's decision to freeze talks on the nuclear issue and expansion of the membership of the negotiating group will not affect the situation around Iran's nuclear program in a whole, experts say.

"Iran's move does not "penalise" the international community in any meaningful way, since the U.S. and the other major powers have little confidence in the first place that those talks will lead to progress on the nuclear issue," Vice President for Defense and Foreign Policy Studies at the Cato Institute Ted Galen Carpenter wrote Trend in an e-mail.

Earlier this week, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said that Tehran will 'punish' the world powers for the implementation of the new sanctions, freezing all negotiations on the nuclear issue for two months (until August) and forwarding some conditions for the resumption of the negotiating process.

Change or expansion of the participants in the negotiations on Iran's nuclear program and clarification over the situation surrounding Israel's nuclear arsenal are among Ahmadinejad's conditions.

According to Carpenter, Ahmadinejad's decision is primarily a gesture to appeal to certain domestic constituencies and sympathizers in the rest of the Muslim world.

"Whether Tehran agrees to talk or refuses to talk has little impact on the underlying reality--that Iran is determined to proceed with its nuclear program," he said.

Iranian Professor at the University of Glasgow Reza Taghizadeh believes such suggestion by Iranian President Ahmadinejad that the talk with "5+1" would be delayed for 2 month makes no sense at all as there has never been any deadline set for the talk with Iran by any of the previous interlocutors or the sides such as IAEA or the "5+1" group that could be delayed by Iran as a mean of retaliations.

"Suggestion by Ahmadinejad that the talk with the "5+1" would be delayed for 2 month makes no sense at all, unless one could conclude that Iran is sending a signal ready to open negotiations and talks with the international community but no sooner that the next two month," Taghizadeh wrote Trend in an e-mail.

The time delay could be used as a face saving measure for the Iranian public, he said.

"In the meantime, Iran could add up to its stockpile of 20% enriched uranium by another 14 kg," Tagizadeh said. "Iran is hoping that after the start of a new round of talks this could be used as a bargaining cheep helping the regime to negotiate better deal with the "5+1" group."

Head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran Ali Akbar Salehi reported in late June, that Iran had enriched 17 kilograms of uranium to 20-percent purity, as well as that it has the ability to produce 5 kilograms per month.

Iran has started enriching uranium to 20-percent level from the previous 5-percent in February, citing the need for nuclear fuel for reactors designed to produce medical isotopes.

Nevertheless, Taghizadeh said, with the new sanctions imposed by the UN, the EU and the US the world community is expecting that Iran gets under severe pressure and gradually succumbed to the circumstances.

"Despite all world leaders are demonstrating verbal willingness to start talks with Iran, in practice they are more interested to see Iran weakening even further, before they could force them to meet fully with the UN demands stated in 4 sets of sanctions ratified since 2006 by Security Council, " he said.

To date, the UN Security Council adopted six resolutions, four of which are aimed at imposing sanctions against Iran, requiring the country to give up uranium enrichment, and two resolutions containing warnings.

Carpenter regards the proposal to expand the number of participants in the negotiating group "5+1" as interesting.

"Most likely, it is an attempt to get both Turkey and Brazil added, since those countries seem the most inclined among major powers to take a "soft line" toward Iran's nuclear program," he said.

The UNSC approved a resolution in May 2006, under which the "5+1" group that was mandated to negotiate with Iran has been established.

The "5+1" include five countries - the UNSC permanent members with veto power - Britain, France, USA, China, Russia, and Germany. Turkey and Brazil, which are non-permanent members of the UNSC are the only, which voted against the adoption of the latest resolution on Iran.

According to Taghizadeh, Iran's proposal to expand the group in order to include Turkey and Brazil is very unlikely to be accepted since the "5+1" group are practically acting the UN Security Council permanent members, where as Turkey and Brazil are only non permanent members of the UNSC.

Brazil, Germany, India and Japan insist on the UN reform and expansion of the Security Council since the mid 1990's. In May 2005, they submitted a draft resolution to the UN General Assembly on increasing the number of council members from 15 to 25, and the number of countries sitting in it all the time - from 5 to 11.

China, the U.S., Russia, France and Britain are against the expansion of the UNSC members. Washington, in principle, opposed to increasing the number of council members, as it will complicate decision-making.

"Even in a very unlikely situation that Turkey and Brazil joined the Vienna Group ( France-Russia and the US ) or the "5+1" Group condition for Iran is not going to get changed," Taghizadeh said.

Unlike the American and British experts, Iranian National Interests Protection Organization Secretary General Said Jari named Iran's wish to reduce the tension between Western countries and Iran over the deal on the exchange of uranium and other issues as a reason for Ahmadinejad's statements on the suspension of negotiations before the end of August.

"Ahmadinejad asked to suspend negotiations until the end of August, because the western countries and the U.S. rejected the tripartite agreement signed between Turkey, Brazil and Iran, and then imposed the new sanctions," Jari told Trend over the telephone.

Turkey, Brazil and Iran signed an agreement on exchange of 1,200 kg of low-enriched uranium in the territory of Turkey May 17.

The foreign ministers of these countries signed a draft agreement for the exchange of Tehran's existing low-enriched uranium (3.5%) to the highly enriched (up to 20%) fuel for the Tehran research reactor. The exchange, according to the document will be on the Turkish territory. Under the agreement, Iran is ready to send 1.2 tons of low enriched uranium to Turkey to obtain 120 kilograms of nuclear fuel.

According to Jari, the negotiations would be fruitless in such circumstances. So Ahmadinejad has suspended talks and preparing a new package of proposals, created the conditions for exit from the impasse, he added.  

At the recent news conference Ahmadinejad said that the Iranian National Security Council develops a new package of proposals, which will be sent to countries of the 'Six' and the IAEA Board of Governors.

"I think that the resumption of negotiations will coincide with a new package of proposals in late August," Jari said. "The negotiations will be activated on the basis of new programs and new proposals."

The reason for the proposal to change the composition of the "Six", in his opinion, is the existence of new players such as Turkey and Brazil in the international arena.

"Despite the fact that Turkey and Brazil have certain obligations to the "5+1" group, they may have an impact on issues of international and regional relations and security issues," Jari said adding that they are able to play the role of observers over the "Six" countries.

Jari believes new countries in the 'Six' can affect the opposition to the unipolar hard decisions taken by the 'Six' in regard to countries of the region, as well as mitigating the cause of their positions.

"Turkey, Brazil or other countries may join the "5+1" group in the same capacity as Germany," Jari said. "The likelihood is that the group will acquire a different format, very high, since the 'Six' may accept this offer for the more tractable Iran."

However, according to Carpenter, the basic situation remains the same.

"Neither negotiations nor economic sanctions are likely to prevent Iran from eventually entering the ranks of the global nuclear powers," he said. "Only military force might prevent that outcome, and such a step is far too dangerous."

T.Jafarov contributed to the article.

Do you have any feedback? Contact our journalist at [email protected]

Uzbekistan taking measures to develop religious tourism
Uzbekistan taking measures to develop religious tourism
Azerbaijani Association of Travel Agencies and Association of Travel Bloggers sign agreement of understanding (PHOTO)
Azerbaijani Association of Travel Agencies and Association of Travel Bloggers sign agreement of understanding (PHOTO)
Experts make forecasts for Georgia's post-COVID tourism industry recovery
Experts make forecasts for Georgia's post-COVID tourism industry recovery
Loading Bars
White House cites 'active threat,' urges action despite Microsoft patch
Iran's South Pars Gas Company declares gas production volumes
4 terrorists killed in security forces operations in NW Pakistan
Turkey registers more than 11 180 new coronavirus cases
Iran’s CBI unveils amount of loans issued by banks
Azerbaijani Finance Ministry to auction off interest-bearing bonds
Iran to launch several facilities under city municipalities
Azerbaijan together with McKinsey improving railway sector
Turkmenistan's State Development Bank opens tender for IFRS 9 standard implementation
FIA updates schedule of Formula 1 weekends
Amount of loans issued in Iran's industrial and mining sectors announced
Israel's forex reserves hit record 185.09 bln USD
Review of main events of Azerbaijani financial market for first week of March
Turkey goes zero waste in agriculture
Iran's Energy Exchange announces products to be on sale on March 8
Iran’s Bahar Azadi gold coin price rebounds
Uzbekistan takes additional measures to support livestock industries
Iran’s CBI shares report on open market operations
Geostat reveals volume of meat production in Georgia
Reopening schools a "national effort" to beat coronavirus: UK PM
Jordan's PM reshuffles cabinet to accelerate reforms
Turkmenistan's oil refining volumes exceed plan
Kazakhstan increases imports from Hungary in 2020
Iran's interbank interest rate decrease
Weekly review of Azerbaijani currency market
Indonesia reports 5,826 new COVID-19 cases, 112 more deaths
7 killed, 3 missing in floods in northern Algeria
Iran reveals COVID-19 data for March 7
Azerbaijan shows footage from Aghdam's Suma village (VIDEO)
COVID cases up in Turkey’s 3 biggest cities as east enjoys calm
Turkmenistan reveals indicators of construction, industrial sector
Iran launches new projects in Hormozgan Province
Azerbaijan's Mortgage & Credit Guarantee Fund signs tender contract
Russia’s confirmed coronavirus cases grow by 10,595 in past day to 4,322,776
Azerbaijan confirms 127 more COVID-19 recoveries
Bitcoin rises 4.2% to $50,947.94
Georgia reports 234 coronavirus cases, 349 recoveries, 9 deaths
Uzbekneftegaz stabilizes pressure at gas pipelines of Mubarek oil & gas dep’t
Prices on Azerbaijani oil continue to rise
Khazar Consortium opens tender for purchase of steam field unit
Iran to manufacture new wagons and locomotives
Saudi-led coalition destroys 10 Houthi drones
Document on providing all countries with vaccine against COVID-19 adopted under Azerbaijan’s chairmanship in NAM
8 police, 5 militants killed during clashes in N. Afghanistan
Weekly review of Azerbaijani precious metals market
Iran's Energy Exchange announces products to be on sale on March 7
Azerbaijan shows footage from Fuzuli's Garakollu village (VIDEO)
Weekly review of major developments in Azerbaijan's transport sector
S. Korea reports 416 more COVID-19 cases, 92,471 in total
Health Minister: Only WHO approved vaccine to be imported
Turkey records dropping revenues from cement export to Georgia
Iran's customs releases more imported commodities
Turkmenistan shares data on GDP growth rate
New hazelnut processing plant to open in Azerbaijan’s Zagatala
New Zealand's Auckland emerges from lockdown, Australia starts AstraZeneca vaccinations
China exports jump 60.6% y/y in January-February, imports up 22.2%
Brazil registers 1,555 deaths from COVID-19 in 24 hours
Iran's trade, economic, political relations with neighboring countries to be developed
Ebola infects 29 people, kills 13 in Guinea, DRC: Africa CDC
UN chief condemns terrorist attack in Somalia
Paraguay’s president asks all ministers to resign amid protest rallies
Weekly review of highlights in Azerbaijan's agricultural sector
Israel reports 3,262 new COVID-19 cases, 799,727 in total
Biden says $1,400 payments can start to go out this month
France registers 23,306 new coronavirus cases, 170 deaths
U.S. Senate passes 1.9-trln-USD relief bill after marathon overnight session
UK records another 6,040 coronavirus cases, 158 deaths
India could be next happening market for SPAC-driven investor frenzy
Amazon, Google vie for piece of India digital payment market
India’s Wipro to acquire UK company for $1.45 bn
Indian-American named 1st VP, COO of Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Indian Govt to support Sri Lanka – Keheliya
Canada thanks India for sending 500,000 doses of COVID-19 vaccines
India proposes inclusion of Chabahar Port in INSTC multi-lateral corridor project
Nepali Parliamentarians take COVID-19 vaccine ahead of reinstated lower house meeting
Twitter tests audio chat tool Spaces on Android in India
WHO reports over 353,000 new daily cases of COVID-19
U.S. administers 87.9 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines: CDC
Foreign diplomats acquainted with Gulebird HPP in liberated Lachin of Azerbaijan (PHOTO)
Uzbekneftegaz eyes increasing daily production of liquefied gas at Shurtan oil&gas dep’t
Maduro receives Russia’s Sputnik V COVID-19 vaccine
Prices for fuels and lubricants increase in Kyrgyzstan 10-15% in one month
Turkey reports 11,770 COVID-19 cases in 24 hours
Iran, Iraq confer on expansion of transportation coop.
Visitors from Central Asia countries to enter Georgia with PCR tests
Armenian occupants seriously damage Azerbaijan's ecology - Ministry (PHOTO)
Paris police clear Seine riverside over lack of social distancing
Twitter's Dorsey auctions first ever tweet as digital memorabilia
Tibetan spiritual leader Dalai Lama gets vaccine shot
Five people killed in Ukrainian bus crash in Poland
Azerbaijani oil & gas sector's weekly review
Air France plane forced to land in Sofia due to disruptive passenger
Turkmenhimiya SC opens tender for construction of plants for technical iodine production
Georgian GlenBerries company launches arrangement of greenhouses for growing vegetables and fruits
Azerbaijani Ministry of Education implementing innovative projects with Microsoft
Bahar Azadi gold coin price continues to fall in Iran
We successfully completed all steps taken, including ending occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh - Erdogan
WHO official advises against introducing ‘immunity passports’ for travelers now
Russia logs 11,022 new COVID-19 cases
Azerbaijan confirms 149 more COVID-19 recoveries
All news