Experts: New talks on Iranian nuclear program will fail

Experts: New talks on Iranian nuclear program will fail

Azerbaijan, Baku, Sept.16 / Trend, T. Konyayeva /

New talks on Iran's nuclear program are bound to fail regardless of their format and whether or not Turkey and Brazil are participating, experts say.

"The chances for successful talks with Iran on the nuclear issue in any format are equal to zero," Russian Institute for Middle Eastern Studies President Yevgeny Satanovsky told Trend via e-mail. "Ahmadinejad and Mottaki have decided to change the format due to some of their concerns, perhaps making sure that Turkey and Brazil are not strong allies."

An agreement on the exchange of nuclear fuel will only be discussed within the Vienna Group (IAEA, Russia, the United States and France), Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said on Monday, adding that there is no need to involve other countries in the discussion. Thus, Turkey and Brazil will not participate in the talks on nuclear fuel.

U.S. Professor Barry Rubin agrees that the new talksare doomed to failure.

"The talks will fail," he said. "Iran is only interested in getting nuclear weapons and any proposals they throw out now are meant to buy time and are basically the same as what they first proposed and then rejected more than a year ago."

According to ethnic Iranian British analyst and University of Glasgow Professor Reza Taghizadeh, in the current circumstances Iran is not prepared to change its position, and the FM's statements are focused only on buying time and continuing the nuclear program in the same vein.

"Iran's principles regarding its nuclear program are unchanged, in fact the changes are not expected," Taghizadeh told Trend over telephone. "No changes are observed in Iranian politics, and Mottaki's address is not an indication of any changes in this matter."

He added that Brazil and Turkey thought that they could make Iran change its position by joining the mediation and resolving the nuclear issue.

"But since the adoption of the resolution in 1929, Turkey and Brazil have realized that Iran will not turn off its own ways and their efforts were unsuccessful," Taghizadeh said. "These two countries' interests in mediation decreased, so Iran does not insist on the participation of these countries in the negotiations."

A tripartite agreement on the exchange of uranium was reached on May 17 between Iran, Turkey and Brazil. The foreign ministers of these countries signed a draft agreement for the exchange of Tehran's low-enriched uranium (up to 3.5 percent) for highly enriched uranium (up to 20 percent) for the Tehran research reactor. According to the document, the exchange will be made on Turkish territory.

Taghizadeh said if they achieve the main goals of the Vienna Group's proposal, one of which is to deprive Iran of the possibility to enrich its 3.5 percent uranium and subsequently produce a nuclear bomb, the Security Council, U.N., International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the international community will be able to accept Iran's nuclear program.

In October 2009, the IAEA and "six international mediators on Iran" (Russia, the United States, China, Britain, France and Germany) offered Tehran to exchange low-enriched uranium (3.5-percent) to high-enriched uranium (20-percent). According to this plan, Iran was proposed to export its LEU to Russia where it would be further enriched and then sent to France for processing it into fuel assemblies for the Tehran reactor.

According to the IAEA, 1.2 tons of the input material for the foreign nuclear fuel to be supplied to Iran was supposed to come from the Natanz Plant, which holds 80 percent of all of Iran's reserves (1,500 kilograms).

IAEA General Director Yukiya Amano issued a report in May noting that Iran has already amassed 2,427 kilograms of uranium enriched to 4.8 percent. However, the last report puts the figure at 2,800 kilograms, which means that the initially agreed upon 1,200 kilograms comprises only 45 percent of the total uranium produced in Iran.

European expert and Research Fellow at EU Institute for Security Studies Jean Pascal Zanders told Trend that the effectiveness of the new talks is a complex issue.

"First of all there is the matter of the sanctions voted to be by the Security Council in summer," he said by phone. "A number of countries have imposed sanctions against Iran. This is one aspect. The second aspect is the fact that Iran is still not forthcoming with information concerning its program; it is hampering the work of the IAEA."

"There are no indications that Iran has a military program," he said. "But Iran does not project confidence to the international community in terms of its program. More people have become very skeptical of Iran."

Zanders added that there is also the question of inspectors as so far Iran has refused nearly 40 IAEA inspectors since 2006.

"It is becoming a matter of principle," he said. "Legally, Iran has that right (to refuse the inspectors), but again motivation is the question here."

France, Germany and the UK accused Iran on Wednesday of trying to undermine the ability to effectively monitor the Iranian nuclear program. A joint statement issued by the most influential European countries was read at a closed meeting of the IAEA Council of Governors by the French representative. The document expressed concern about "the growing number of cases of Iran refusing to cooperate with the U.N. atomic agency."

The international community and the Vienna Group in particular want clarity on the issue and at the same time demand that Iran cease its enrichment activities, Zanders said.

"The Vienna Group is not really looking at specific solutions right now," he said. "They basically require Iran to comply with the IAEA's decisions and the Security Council's resolutions."

As regards the initiative by Turkey and Brazil, he said it came into the picture earlier this year as they sought to come up with some sort of compromise solution.

"Turkey, while probably being honest in its intentions, made a strategic mistake in the sense that it did not coordinate the ideas with the United States," he said. "In other words, there is the impression that some countries in the Vienna Group, particularly France and the United States, thought that this was an effort to short circuit what they were trying to do regarding their core principles - halting enrichment without international supervision."

According to Zanders, the other difficulty for Turkey today in mediating the issue is its soured relations with Israel, particularly after the incident with the "Flotilla of Freedom."

The Israeli military clashed with passengers on board the flotilla on May 31 in the Mediterranean Sea. The fleet of ships were allegedly carrying thousands of tons of humanitarian aid to Gaza. Nine people were killed and dozens more were wounded.

Turkish leaders have made statements concerning Israel which were of the wrong nature in terms of turning Turkey into an honest broker in the region in light of Israel's genuine concerns about Iran's nuclear activities, Zanders said.

He added that the Turkish initiative is positive particularly because Turkey is Iran's neighbors and Turkey does not really have a stake in seeing Iran involved in a major conflict in the region.

"Turkey can contribute something," Zanders said. "But its efforts should acquire a higher level of maturity in terms of consulting with all of the parties concerned."

"In other words, what happened in May when the proposal with Brazil came to the fore - it very much has the impression of a solo initiative, something that was done with Iran," he said. "However, it did not really demonstrate that any of the concerns in the United States and in Europe had been taken into consideration."

"Before coming to the fore with an initiative, all-round consultations should take place," Zanders noted. "And if Turkey has privileged relations within the Middle East, be it Iran, be it Israel, be it Syria, or some other country, I think that it should maximize on these types of contacts and consult with the other parties concerned before coming to the fore with solutions."

T.Jafarov contributed to the article.

Russia retains status of only polymer products supplier to Turkmenistan from EAEU countries
Russia retains status of only polymer products supplier to Turkmenistan from EAEU countries
Russia allows imports of peppers tomatoes from one more Kazakh venture
Russia allows imports of peppers tomatoes from one more Kazakh venture
Kazakh Parliament ratifies free trade agreement between EAEU, Serbia
Kazakh Parliament ratifies free trade agreement between EAEU, Serbia
Loading Bars
Construction of circular gas pipeline being completed in Uzbekistan’s Tashkent
Uzbekistan’s 2020 import of construction materials down
Gradual opening of economy may start earlier than planned in Georgia
Russia retains status of only polymer products supplier to Turkmenistan from EAEU countries
Georgia to resume regular flights from February 1
Kazakhstan to apply UN sustainable food production principles
Iran announces amount of enriched uranium
Azerbaijan creates working group to increase export of tomatoes
Mortgage lending in Azerbaijan through state line greatly grows in 2020
Ministry of Education to become separate agency in Georgia
Wikipedia includes articles about Azerbaijan in Polish
EIB energy co-op with Azerbaijan to be affected by Energy Lending Policy, CBR
American Airlines posts record annual loss on pandemic pain
Int'l Association Israel-Azerbaijan sends letter to Polish channel due to Karabakh war documentary
Iran's Fordow uranium enrichment ahead of schedule - Iranian Parliamentary Speaker
Azerbaijani MP meets with residents of Khudat city (PHOTO)
Iranian Energy Exchange announces products to be on sale on January 30
UNEC students reach the final of the international competition
Trilateral working group on Nagorno-Karabakh region to discuss restoration of transport infrastructure in region
Azerbaijani ministry discloses number of new cultural monuments in liberated territories
Azerbaijan talks ongoing work on construction of Baku-Guba-Russia border highway (PHOTO)
German minister sees COVID-19 vaccine shortage well into April
Georgia starting to reform state-owned enterprises
Dow profit rises 61.4% on recovery in chemical prices, demand
UNESCO should recognize damage done from Armenian occupation to Azerbaijan's heritage - analyst
PetroIran Development Company developing several oil fields
Dostlug field - major breakthrough in Azerbaijani -Turkmen energy relations
Azerbaijan to increase financial inclusion for entrepreneurs
WB talks about results of measures to develop human capital in Azerbaijan
Azerbaijan prioritizes support for Karabakh war veterans, martyr families - Azernews newspaper
GSA Technologies company plans to popularize Smart Aeroponics technology in Georgia
Armenia also destroyed Orthodox church in Azerbaijan’s Khojavend district - Trend TV report
Iran reveals COVID-19 data for January 28
Azerbaijan greatly increases export of tomatoes to Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan's KAZ Minerals reports 2020 operations results above guidance range
Uzbekistan reveals budget allocated for healthcare sector in 2021
Uzbekistan working to improve quality of drinking water supply services in Tashkent
Turkmen Maritime and River Transportation Agency exceeds working plan for transportation
Azerbaijani banks accelerate the digitalization of payments, services in 2020 (Interview)
Azerbaijani Central Bank talks countrywide development of financial technologies
Iran's Bahar Azadi gold coin price continues to rise
Georgian "Kakhetian Traditional Winery" to start construction of eco-village
Kazakhstan's civil aviation authorities introducing 'e-Freight' system
Azerbaijani banks buy more foreign currency at CBA's auction
Russia allows imports of peppers tomatoes from one more Kazakh venture
Kazakh Parliament ratifies free trade agreement between EAEU, Serbia
Iran declares its revenues from tea exports
Azerbaijan's AzeriCard and Visa developing new mobile platform
UK will review quarantine country list on Thursday
Iran's CBI reveals amount of loans issued in Iran's housing and construction sector
Iran's NIOC holding discussions with foreign company regarding Susangerd field
Azerbaijan may open trading houses in Japan and Pakistan
New enterprises put into operation in Iran's industrial parks
Iran's exports from Kerman Province increases
Vaccine diplomacy: India gets request from all across the world; partnering in phased manner
Georgia reduces importing of pyrotechnics
Number of hotel rooms commissioned in Uzbekistan increase despite COVID-19
Romania decreases petroleum oils import from Kazakhstan amid COVID-19
Precious metal prices decrease in Azerbaijan
Azerbaijani president views conditions created at reconstructed schools in Sabunchu, Surakhani (PHOTO)
Turkish TAV Airports holding eyes modernizing airports in Uzbekistan
Realization of SGC - successful result of years of work - Ambassador Cekuta
Uzbekistan to start preparation for mass vaccination against COVID-19
Georgia reports 723 new cases of coronavirus for Jan.28
London Court of International Arbitration issue second arbitral award in favor of SOCAR
SOCAR’s LNG cargo scheduled to arrive to Pakistan as contracted
Azerbaijani wine products to be presented at int'l exhibition in China
Iran plans to export oil from Gulf of Oman
Amount of loans issued to Iran's industrial and mining sectors announced
India’s gift of 5 lakh doses of Covishield vaccines reaches Sri Lanka
Rector Elmar Gasimov holds online meeting with Presidential Scholars (PHOTO)
Azerbaijani currency rates for Jan.28
Non-cash transactions exceed cash turnover for first time in Azerbaijan - ABA's president
Azerbaijan nearly doubles seafood exports
Uzbekistan to increase tax on production and sale of oil products
Growth of imports of dairy products in 2020 continues in Georgia
Turkmenistan ready to start practical steps to create logistics center in Russia’s Astrakhan
Russia’s Tatneft in Turkmenistan opens tender for bulldozer services
Azerbaijani oil prices continue to grow
Kazakhstan, Switzerland see trade volume decrease amid COVID-19
Turkmenistan's Turkmenhimiya opens tender for purchase of urea-formaldehyde concentrate
Azerbaijan reveals data on population's bank deposits countrywide
Indo-Israel Chambers of Commerce eyes Israel, India, UAE business opportunities
Uzbekistan to launch number of plants for natural facing stones production
Cafes, restaurants in Azerbaijan to work on weekends
Kazakhstan eyes measures for livestock breeding market dev't within EAEU
Burj Khalifa lights up with tricolour to celebrate India's 72nd Republic Day
IMF projects Indian economy to be fastest-growing next financial year
Kazakhstan’s subsidiary bank operating in Uzbekistan increases its total assets
Nepal begins nationwide inoculation drive against COVID-19
Telephonic Conversation between National Security Adviser and Mr. Jake Sullivan, National Security Advisor of U.S.A
Toyota beats Volkswagen to become World's No.1 car seller in 2020
Azerbaijan's electronic government portal registers more users in 2020
Turkmen company exceeds salt extraction plan
Final results of market test to double TAP’s capacity due in October
Iranian currency rates for January 28
Azerbaijan's Parliament to approve new document on visas between Azerbaijan and Turkey
TAP will also be able to transport hydrogen in future – managing director
Deposits value denominated in national currency surges in Kazakhstan
Russian Aeroflot announces cancelation of regular flights to Azerbaijan
All news