Expert: OSCE summit not to set point in Nagorno-Karabakh process

Expert: OSCE summit not to set point in Nagorno-Karabakh process

Kazakhstan, Astana, Nov. 23 /Trend, A.Maratov/

It is possible to expect proposals and statements on Nagorno-Karabakh conflict from the forthcoming OSCE summit in Astana, but it is too early to speak about the final point in the process, well-known Kazakh political scientist Dosym Satpayev said.

"The summit can make formal statements that are very important for Kazakhstan, because President Nazarbayev wants concrete proposals to be made on such painful topics as protracted conflicts," Satpayev, a member of Trend Expert Council, told Trend.
Therefore, he said, there is some hope that such proposals will be made, but no one expects that the summit will set the final point in this conflict.

The OSCE summit, which has not been conducted over the last 11 years, will be held in Astana in early December under the chairmanship of Kazakhstan. It is assumed that the main topics of discussions at the summit will also include the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement.

The conflict between the two South Caucasus countries began in 1988 when Armenia made territorial claims against Azerbaijan. Armenian armed forces have occupied 20 percent of Azerbaijan since 1992, including the Nagorno-Karabakh region and seven surrounding districts.

Azerbaijan and Armenia signed a ceasefire agreement in 1994. The co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group - Russia, France, and the United States - are currently holding the peace negotiations.

Armenia has not yet implemented the U.N. Security Council's four resolutions on the liberation of the Nagorno-Karabakh and the surrounding regions.

It is not worthy to expect signing of a declaration or agreement on Nagorno-Karabakh in the Astana summit, since the background this year is not conducive to resolving the conflict promptly, said Satpayev.

During its entire chairmanship to the OSCE this year, Kazakhstan paid attention to resolving conflicts on the territory of member countries, including the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. President Nursultan Nazarbayev, in particular, initiated a plan for "100 simple steps for ordinary people by both sides," proposed by the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia.

According to Satpayev, Nazarbayev's proposal can listened, but the question is that Kazakhstan is not a key player in resolving this conflict.

The sides that are able to influence the negotiation process on Nagorno-Karabakh, are the United States and Russia, Satpayev believes.
"Russia and the U.S. can to some extent influence the conflicting sides, Satpayev said. - Russia can exert pressure on Armenia, since Armenia is strongly associated with it in many directions, and the U.S. has the status of world superpower."
Satpayev questioned Turkey's influence in the South Caucasus region, noting some difficulties. It is difficult to consider Turkey as a country that would satisfy both parties, as Yerevan suspects that Turkey has more common points with Azerbaijan.

"The essence of the diplomatic work is that the reconciling party, that is a moderator, must satisfy both conflicting sides. Turkey is not suitable for this role," said Satpayev.

Kazakhstan is also not suitable for the role of moderator: neither for its geopolitical location, nor for its activities in the Caucasus. South Caucasus, he said, was not a priority for Kazakhstan's policy by the current chairmanship to OSCE.

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