Azerbaijan, Baku, Dec. 23 / Trend E. Tariverdiyeva /
The South Caucasus is entering 2011 in a rather complex situation with many unsolved problems, Alexander Rahr, a German political analyst and a member of the Trend Expert Council, told Trend today.
"The Astana summit in late 2010 did not bring the region closer to stability and settlement of territorial disputes," Rahr, who heads the German Council on Foreign Relations' Russia-Eurasia Center, told Trend over the phone from Berlin.
He said the parties to the conflicts in South Caucasus missed a real chance to make a decision on the Nagorno-Karabakh and Georgian territorial and ethnic disputes at a high international level in Astana.
A decision was not made at the OSCE summit about the further functioning of the organization itself. It is not surprising that these issues of conflict have been left in the shade, the expert said.
"I think that from the perspective of Europe, it is very important that on the eve of the summit in Astana, President Mikheil Saakashvili vowed not to use force to return South Ossetia and Abkhazia, which he considers as occupied territories," Rahr said.
Addressing a session of the European parliament in Strasbourg, Saakashvili said his country will never use force to return breakaway republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which have been occupied by Russia since 2008.
Military actions were launched in the unrecognized republic of South Ossetia in August 2008. Georgian troops entered Tskhinvali, the capital of South Ossetia and later Russian troops occupied the city and drove the Georgian military back to Georgia. Russia recognized the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia on Aug. 26 and established diplomatic relations with them on Sept. 9, 2008.
On the other hand, time is passing and sooner or later decisions have to be made, he said.
"Once West Germany did not recognize East Germany for 20 years," he said. "But later the dialogue was restored. I think that the Georgian authorities will eventually have to establish a dialogue with Abkhazia and South Ossetia."
Returning to the example of West Germany, this policy was correct, Rahr said. Moreover, it is not necessary for Russia's influence to increase in these regions.
"Today, the countries of South Caucasus and Russia must understand that such conflicts must be resolved peacefully and through economic cooperation, as it gives additional leverage to influence the positions of the parties of the conflicts," Rahr said.