Russia, Moscow, Feb. 3 /Trend, E.Tariverdiyeva/
Mohamed ElBaradei is a figure, who is not completely politically independent. He has a limited political and no political party to speak of, the Heritage Foundation's leading expert on Eurasia and Trend Expert Council member Ariel Cohen said.
"ElBaradei is a "brand" in international affairs, a figure, who somehow has to, on the one hand, rely on the 'Muslim Brotherhood' and on the other hand, - will be used by them," Cohen told Trend.
'Muslim Brotherhood' is Egypt's largest Islamist political organization that has been officially banned since 1954. Its members, however, participate in parliamentary and municipal elections.
The most massive anti-governmental protests took place in Egypt and some other Arab countries over the last decade. Thousands of people in different cities all over the country went into the streets calling for resignation of President Hosni Mubarak and dissolving the parliament. Fearing a Tunisian scenario, Egyptian authorities dispersed the protesters with tear gas. Following several days of riots, thousands of demonstrators were arrested. Roughly 300 people died, more than 4,000 people were injured during the riots.
According to a member of the Trend Expert Council, Ariel Cohen, the world has observed a similar trend in Iran after 1979, when the liberal leaders such as Prime Minister Mehdi Bazargan and Abul Hassan Bani Sadr were used by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini as battering rams to come to power and as a cover to deflect suspicions of West. Later, the radicals took power and these figures were either killed or escaped. A similar history can happen with ElBaradei, the analyst believes.
As for the military forces in Egypt, according to Cohen, the current regime is practically based on the power of the military, and it has been in existence since 1952, when Col. Gamal Abdel Nasser took power.
"Mubarak himself and his Vice President Omar Suleiman are military generals. It seems to me that the military either tries to leave the ruling party in power or to make a deal with the new regime," Cohen said. According to the political analyst, Turkey's experience, where the military were strong for 80 years shows but then pushed aside by the civilian government, demonstrates that such deals are opportunistic, and if politicians strengthen their power and gain legitimacy, they can later subordinate the military to themselves and take it under control. "In this case, the military will have to work with the new regime. The time will tell whether it will be an Islamic one or not," he said.