Army's intervention in Egypt is inevitable

Army's intervention in Egypt is inevitable

Sweden, Stockholm, Feb. 4 / Trend U. Sadikhova /

For now, the Egyptian army will stay out of the limelight, but maintain the ruling regime, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak will be able to preserve power in spite of fierce clashes. However, ceasing of support of the military elite and their intervention, considered by the experts as inevitable, would mean the end to Mubarak's power.

"The army's intervention is inevitable. It will occur under international pressure, in particular the United States," Noha Mellor, a professor at the Arts and Political Science Faculty at London University, told Trend via e-mail.

One of the largest countries in Africa and the Middle East, Egypt plunged into anarchy from Jan. 25 because of the large-scale mass protests against President Hosni Mubarak. The protesters demand the immediate resignation of the 82-year-old president, who has been in power for more than 30 years, and fundamental political and economic reforms.

According to the various estimates, at least 300 people died and several thousand were injured in different cities all over the country.

The most prominent members of political unrest were the representatives of the Muslim Brotherhood Movement, the banned religious organization, and former head of the IAEA, reformist Mohammed al Baradei.

Military elite of the country prefers to remain in the shadows, but British experts think that their intervention is inevitable.

Dr. Mellor thinks that lull of the Army is connected with the difficult decision. Its outcome will determine the future regime of Mubarak

"The military power in Egypt is indeed huge, but my guess is that the army is really caught in a dilemma. On the one hand they do not want to abandon their leader, Mubarak, who also fought with them in the past. And on the other hand they do not want to abandon the ordinary citizens, who are looking for the army to help," she said.

If so, the army would interfere to stop the thugs in the streets. But if the army makes one step against Mubarak, the current regime will fall, she said.

Once they signal to Mubarak that they're not going to protect him, he will have to leave immediately. He is now relying on the army's protection and if this is gone, he is gone, she said.

In his last interview with U.S. TV channel ABC, Mubarak said that if he would resign before the presidential elections in September, the country will plunge into a long-term chaos.

Earlier, the leaders of the five major European powers - France, Germany, Great Britain, Italy and Spain, as well as the U.S. leadership, called for immediate transferring of Mubarak's power.

Previously, Mubarak said that he would retain the presidency until the presidential elections scheduled for September this year, but will not run, RIA Novosti reported.

Ahron Bregman, an analyst at the War Studies Department at King's College London, predicts the possible resignation of the Egyptian president and the subsequent intervention of the Egyptian army to restore order in the country.

Indeed, given the pressure on him - both internal and international - such a move must not be ruled out. His departure, however, might create a vacuum accompanied by chaos and anarchy in Egypt, he told Trend via e-mail.

"I believe that this might be the moment when the Egyptian army will interfere to restore order and probably help the existing government to exhaust the political process in order to produce a new civilian leadership in Egypt," he said.

However, the Egyptian citizens are not willing for the military officers to take power in Egypt, she said.

"I do not think the army's intervention would make it less popular among the Egyptians. On the contrary, the army will be seen as the people's rescuer. But I do not think people look for a new candidate among the army officers. They only want the army to intervene to protect them, but not necessarily to lead the country in the future," she said.

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