Alexander Rahr: Revolution without ideology can lead to chaos in Middle East

Azerbaijan, Baku, Feb.16 / Trend, E. Tariverdiyeva /

Revolution without ideology in the Middle East may be awash with social problems and chaos, Alexander Rahr, Director of the Russia-Eurasia Center of the Council on Foreign Relations of Germany, member of Trend Expert Council, believes.

"If the Middle East countries have clear development prospects, the revolution may turn out for positive changes. Otherwise, the changes will be negative," Rahr told Trend over phone from Berlin.
According to Rahr, such revolutions must have an ideology and a clear plan, otherwise they will be awash with social problems and chaos.

President Hosni Mubarak resigned on Feb.11 after nearly three-week long mass protests in Egypt that killed and wounded hundreds of people. Mubarak played his latest set in favor of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, headed by Defense Minister Mohamad Hussain Tantawi.

Unrests also broke out in Algeria, Jordan and Lebanon since early February.

Nearly 3,000 people went on the streets of Yemen's capital Sana'a, demanding political reforms and the resignation of President Ali Abdullah Saleh. Anti-governmental demonstrations were also held in Sana'a earlier, which were attended by students. Several demonstrators were injured, 23 were detained.
Protests in the Kingdom of Bahrain reached the capital Manama on Feb.15. Protests broke out in Libya immediately after Bahrain.

Rahr said that those countries of the Central and Eastern Europe, where velvet revolution broke out in 1989, have had perspective. These countries were immediately included in the EU and NATO, they were financially secured in full, fixed up and made a part of Western civilizations, he said.
"However, one can see that not all revolutions end so successfully on the example of post-Soviet countries. The revolution has not led to radical changes in public life in many of these countries, for example, in Ukraine. This was due to a lack of clear prospects," Rahr said.

Europe, which supported the revolution in the Middle East, has faced today with the enormous flow of immigrants who are fleeing from hunger and uncertainty in their own countries. That becomes a big problem for the West, Rahr underscored.
Italian Interior Minister Roberto Maroni warned a number of other European countries that the unprecedented inflow of immigrants from Tunisia is a threat not only to Italy but entire Europe.

More than 5,000 refugees from the African state, where the power changed after a series of mass protests, have landed on the coast of Italy since early February.

Rahr said that the EU should help create Union of Mediterranean countries to help the Arab states for a safe way out from the current situation in the Middle East.

"Germany could offer such a way out to the Middle Eastern countries, but one cannot predict whether there will be enough political will and opportunities to finance such a union," he said.

According to Rahr, the situation in the region may worsen, especially given the Islamist factor.
"The highly explosive country like Pakistan, which causes serious concerns to international community due to reinforcing Islamists, has not said its word yet," he said.

Rahr said a revolution in Pakistan may have very different results than in Egypt or Tunisia.
"Although the forces, which are not friendly to the West can come to power in these countries, while new Mubarak may appear in Egypt," Rahr said.