Azerbaijan, Baku, Feb. 16 / Trend E. Tariverdiyeva /
The issue of Egypt's future is not less important for the U.S. than for Washington's main allies in the Middle East - Israel and Saudi Arabia, Ariel Cohen, leading expert of the Heritage Foundation for Russian and Eurasian Studies and International Energy Policy, member of Trend Expert Council, believes.
"The issue of whether the largest country in the Arab world will move towards the Islamic fundamentalism or develop secular political institutions remains open, although the military in Egypt reassured the international community, by promising to observe all international agreements," Cohen said in the interview to TREND.
After nearly three weeks of mass protests in Egypt, that killed and injured hundreds of people, President Hosni Mubarak resigned on February 11. The power is now in the hands of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, headed by Defense Minister Mohamed Hussain Tantawi, Mubarak's personal friend.
Since early February, the unrest havealso broken out in Algeria, Jordan, Lebanon
About 3,000 people went to the streets of the capital of Yemen Sana'a, demanding political reforms and resignation of President Ali Abdullah Saleh. The anti-governmental demonstrations with participation of students were held in Sana'a. As a consequence, several marchers were injured, 23 detained.
The protests in the Kingdom of Bahrain reached the capital of Manama on Feb. 15. After Bahrain, the protests immediately began in Libya.
Cohen said that Israel is concerned about developments of Egypt, which would jeopardize the current peace agreement between the two countries.
He said that the statement of the Egyptian military to respect the agreement with Israel sounds reassuring. But only time will tell if these statements will hold.
"The issue whether the army will fulfill its promises, ensuring democratic elections in six months, will be a defining moment for the future of the region. Will a new Egyptian regime remain an ally of Washington, as it was within thirty years during Mubarak's power?"
If the situation happening in the country gets out of control, even the military aid worth $1.3 billion allocated to Egypt by the United States annually may be insufficient to prevent the Islamization of the country, " Cohen said. If the pro-Islamic political forces consolidate during the transition period, they can later subordinate the military and take them under their control, he added.
"Turkey's experience, where the secular regime relied on the armed forces for over 80 years, but where the military were brought under the control of the Islamic Justice and Development Party (AKP), led by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan during the last three years, shows that such a scenario is possible. In the case of a civilian regime with a high level of legitimacy, the military will have to work with the new government, even if it is under the control of the Muslim Brotherhood Organization," Cohen said.
This forecast is strengthened by the example of the Iranian revolution of 1979. The Islamists came to power amid the anti-Shah demonstrations and also took the military under their control, the expert said.
He said thatthe rapidly changing situation in Egypt set serious challenges to the country's political elite.
"It is naive to expect that velvet revolutions of Central Europe in 1989 will be a model for this poor North African country. The anemic legal political parties of Egypt will have to re-create the political platforms, work hard to attract voters, and try to find outside support," Cohen said.
The U.S cannot but worry about the domino effect that can cover other Middle Eastern countries. The protests have been already launched against the authorities in Algeria, Jordan, Yemen and Syria, the expert said.
"If Islamists and Palestinians, comprising over 60 percent of Jordan's population, overthrow the regime of Jordan's King Abdullah II, then the U.S. positions and Western influence will greatly weaken. The peace agreement between Jordan and Israel is likely to disappear. Then one can begin to talk about threat to the Saudi Kingdom and the oil emirates of the Gulf. It can completely change the geopolitical situation in the Middle East," Cohen said.