Azerbaijan, Baku, March 9 /Trend, E.Tariverdiyeva/
In light of current dissent in Libya, the country's President Muammar Gaddafi will not give up the power unless they lose the armed struggle, said the deputy chief editor, director of the Arabic broadcasting of 'Russia Today' TV channel Aydar Aganin.
"He will not go. It's a type of people who do not leave like Saddam Hussein. He will leave his post - even unofficially - only when loses the armed struggle and nothing else will remain except escaping," Aganin said in an interview with Trend.
Protesters have demanded the resignation of Libya's leader, Muammar Gaddafi, who has been in power for already 41 years. The protests have continued from Feb. 15. The authorities violently disperse demonstrations. The troops subject to Gaddafi attacked on rebel-occupied town. Under pressure from tank, the rebels withdrew from Ben Jawad, people are evacuated from the nearby town of Ras Lanuf.
Gaddafi's forces gained superiority in the battle for the city of Az Zawiyah. The town has been completely destroyed, being under incessant fire of aviation. Also units of Gaddafi's army move to the southwest of Tripoli, to the city of Zintan.
The international organizations reported the clashes with security forces and foreign mercenaries have killed about 6,000 people.
The expert said eventually Gaddafi will move to live in exile at someone from his African friends. For example, how it was with the Ethiopian leader Mengistu Haile Mariam, whom the opposition overthrew by armed force, and he now lives in Zimbabwe at Robert Mugabe, said Aganin.
Expert said in fact, a civil war has begun Libya - both sides are armed and use their weapons against each other without hesitation, even though everyone knows that both of them are the Libyans...
"Of course, the regime's weapons are more powerful, but we all are witnessing that the military personnel periodically shift to the opposition, thereby increasing its capacity," he said.
Whether the forces will equalize will be clear soon, said Aganin.
Another scenario is now hardly possible, because firstly, blood has shed, and this is a very serious factor for the tribal societies, and secondly, after all that every losing side will experience the entire shaft of repression, which only it is possible to think.
"So, for the Libyans from both sides - it is not just a "war", but a struggle not for life, but for death...," Aganin said.
He said the military intervention by outside forces in the country is even possible, and opposition is calling for this intervention.
"It is for the most part still seems to be against, but some voices that say American military bases' bombing at the regime would be useful, can be heard louder and louder," said Aganin.
If the Libyan opposition feels that it can not reverse the situation, it is likely to ask the West for military intervention, veiling it with humanitarian considerations, he said. Another question is that the question of landing marines and armored vehicles can hardly now be the topic of discussion, but the suppression of air and artillery of the regime by the NATO forces is dreamed by some already in seriousness, the expert said.
"It is yet unclear what forces form the current Libyan resistance, I think all are there - both the left and right, and the Islamists and secularists, said Aganin. - Who will ultimately prevail in this motley community will become clear only when they start to share power."
The expert said this process can be that moment. "Although it is said that the most organized force is Islamists, I think it is not the case," he said.
Most likely, in the first stage, at least the liberal-democratic forces, who is also supported by the West, will appear in power, he said.
"I am confident that the West will not miss the chance to get this country into its pocket. And how long Libya will sit is the work of the Libyan people. But it's certainly not a question of the next few months," he said.