Azerbaijan, Baku, March 30 / Trend E. Ostapenko /
Kazakh Risk Assessment Group Director Dosym Satpayev believes the upcoming parliamentary elections in Kazakhstan cause greater interest than the current presidential campaign, as the opposition prepares itself.
"It's hard to expect dynamics from the presidential election, in which the winner is already known," Satpayev told Trend by telephone. He says the intrigue of the 2012- parliamentary elections is that the latest changes to the constitution require at least two political parties to be represented at the lower house. But who will become a partner of the presidential Nur Otan party in Parliament?
The current convocation's authorities will expire in 2012, and no proposals have been put forward for early parliamentary elections. However, Satpayev said, given the high mobilization resource and financial capacity of current power structures, early parliamentary elections are possible this autumn. Political parties are preparing for all sorts of options, he said.
The current presidential campaign in Kazakhstan, he added, runs rather sluggishly, as candidates are only opponents of the formal head of state. The first stage of the presidential campaign - candidate registration was closed on March 2. Election campaign, which will end two days before the election day, was launched on March 3.
Four candidates passed registration at the Kazakh Central Election Commission (CEC) and will continue to participate in the snap presidential elections scheduled for April 3. The candidates are Nursultan Nazarbayev, Communist Zhambyl Ahmetbekov, Leader of the Patriots Party, Senator Gani Kasimov and Tabiyat Ecological Union leader Mels Eleusizov.
Experts believe Nazarbayev might easily win the election. Nazarbayev, who has been in power for over 20 years, is supported by about 90 percent of the population.
However, absolute confidence in Nazarbayev's victory could affect the turnout at the polls, Satpayev said. The absence of a real alternative candidate to Nazarbayev may lead to people - who normally vote - not coming to the polls.
Regarding the recent protest rallies in the capital, Satpayev said they do not pose a threat to the government, because they cover only a small group of people. "The fact that such protests are held during the election campaign shows that the organizers wish to draw attention to themselves, simply by using a favorable background," he said. Similar actions were taken at the OSCE summit in December 2010.
A small group of demonstrators mainly including recipients of mortgages and investors in the projects of construction of apartments held a protest in Astana in mid-March. The protesters demanded the government to carry out anti-corruption measures in the construction
sector.
"Their goal is very simple - to get their flats or lower interest rates on mortgage loans. If the government solves this problem, many of them withdraw from active protest activities," Satpayev said.