BAKU, Azerbaijan, March 13. In recent years, geopolitical shifts in the Eurasian region and the necessity to adapt to the world's new energy policy have prompted governments to take new initiatives, Trend reports.
While discussions regarding the transition to new-generation energy are underway, the majority of the world continues to rely on natural gas to meet its energy demands. Hence, gas projects, particularly those aligned with the evolving geopolitical landscape, retain their relevance.
Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed setting up a gas hub in Türkiye, in 2022. The Turkish government responded positively to the plan, instituting legal changes in 2023 to assist in the operation of the gas hub. During the summer, Russia proposed a blueprint for the hub project to Türkiye. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan reaffirmed Türkiye's interest in the project in his post-election victory speech.
Türkiye mostly meets its natural gas demands with gas imported
from Azerbaijan via Russia and the Southern Gas Corridor. Russia,
which has ample resources, hopes to keep its position as a key gas
hub supplier and influential voice in energy markets by launching
this project. This project allows Türkiye to acquire gas from
Azerbaijan and Iran in addition to Russia.
Thus, Türkiye can purchase 10 billion cubic meters of gas from Iran
via the Tengiz-Ankara gas pipeline. On the other hand, it should be
noted that Türkiye has significant advantages in terms of
establishing a regional gas hub, including underground gas storage
facilities, two liquefied gas terminals, and ready infrastructure
for gas transportation from the main sources (pipelines).
Türkiye's gas network
One key area of interest is the potential likelihood of future gas exports from Turkmenistan via Türkiye. Turkmenistan has the world's fourth-largest natural gas reserves, behind Qatar, Iran, and Russia. Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedow, Chairman of Turkmenistan's People's Council, recently indicated at the Antalya Diplomacy Forum that Turkmenistan is preparing for membership in the Organization of Turkic States (OTS), indicating that relations with Turkic nations will strengthen in a variety of areas. Gas projects are unquestionably a key emphasis in this regard.
Despite China being the largest consumer of Turkmen gas, Turkmenistan's huge resources make it an important country for both the region and Europe, which is in desperate need of gas. Turkmenistan is also involved in the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) Gas Pipeline project, albeit its completion has been delayed. The idea of building a Trans-Caspian gas pipeline to transport Central Asian resources, particularly Turkmen gas, to Europe was first proposed in 1997. Unfortunately, it has stayed in the debating stage for many years, with little progress.
Turkmenistan's gas network
The evolving geopolitical landscape in recent years underscores the significance of new projects. Therefore, a crucial consideration is which route Turkmenistan will select at the new gas hub to transport its natural gas reserves to Europe.
Two primary directions are at play here: one aligned with the West and the other with the East. Turkmenistan may opt to join the same gas hub as Türkiye and Azerbaijan, thereby selecting the European, or Western, trajectory. Alternatively, it could choose the eastern trajectory, sharing a common position at the gas hub with Russia and Iran.
Situated at a crucial strategic juncture, Azerbaijan will also join the collaborative gas hub alongside Iran and Russia. Since April 2022, Azerbaijan has been importing natural gas from Turkmenistan, following a swap agreement concluded by the leaders of Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, and Iran at the end of 2021. Per the agreement, Turkmen gas is imported to northeastern Iran, and in return, an equivalent amount of gas is conveyed to Azerbaijan in the northwest. However, as per a statement from the Iranian side, gas supplies under the swap agreement have been temporarily halted since the beginning of 2024. Currently, negotiations are underway between Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan to resume gas supplies based on new tariffs.
In late 2023, Turkmenistan expressed readiness to initiate a natural gas infrastructure project connecting Central Asia and the South Caucasus to Europe via Türkiye. On March 5, 2024, an agreement on cooperation in the gas sector between Turkmenistan and Türkiye was signed at the Antalya Diplomacy Forum. According to the agreement, Turkmen gas will be transported to Europe through Türkiye. There are three primary options for transporting natural gas to Europe: first, through Iran to Türkiye using the swap method; second, via swap through Iran and Azerbaijan to Türkiye; and third, by pipeline through the Caspian Sea to Türkiye.
Therefore, the present scenario indicates that regardless of the direction in which Central Asia, particularly Turkmenistan, with its abundant gas reserves, opts to diversify its gas policy, the members of the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) will hold a pivotal role in Eurasia's energy supply.
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