BAKU, Azerbaijan, April 3. Armenia, once again following the directives of its supporters, has initiated actions aimed at escalating tensions along the nominal borders with Azerbaijan.
In the hours leading up to the April 5 EU-Armenia-US joint meeting in Brussels, the escalation of tensions has become increasingly apparent. Armenia's significant buildup of personnel and military assets along the border underscores the purpose behind its military maneuvers. Furthermore, the decision to mobilize reservists for military exercises from April 1 to June 28 aligns suspiciously with the timing of the April 5 meeting and subsequent developments.
With the utmost clarity, the forthcoming EU-Armenia-US format meeting in Brussels is poised to serve as a platform for Western forces to step into the South Caucasus. Last day's shelling of Azerbaijani Armed Forces positions in the Nakhchivan direction only amplifies the risk of heightened tensions along the Azerbaijan border, potentially before or after this crucial gathering.
There's a plausible scenario where such provocations are orchestrated to goad Azerbaijan into retaliation, thereby laying the groundwork for a pretext to draw Western forces into bolstering Armenia's perceived 'security'.
Armenia appears to be steadfastly gripped by illusions. The April 5 meeting, anticipated to secure explicit Western support for Armenia, raises thought-provoking questions, particularly concerning its implications vis-à-vis Russia:
- Armenia remains a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO)
- Has a bilateral military-political alliance with Russia
- There is a Russian military base on Armenian territory
- Russia accounts for the largest part of Armenia's economic system.
Nonetheless, Armenia is exerting considerable effort to distance itself from Russia's influence and forge a military-political alliance with the West. Amidst these developments, Armenia's political leadership remains unreserved in holding Russia accountable. Just recently, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan once again levied sharp accusations against the Kremlin.
He emphasized that Armenia has upheld its commitments in its relations with Russia without error. Pashinyan further asserted that they have fulfilled all obligations to Russia. The Armenian Prime Minister openly accused Russia of deceit.
Russia's response swiftly followed. Maria Zakharova, spokesperson for the Russian Foreign Ministry, dismissed claims that Russia and the CSTO had not aided Armenia during the escalation in the South Caucasus region as false.
Additionally, she asserted that the recent tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan hinge on Armenia permitting the European Union, the US, and the UK to exert a destructive influence on both the regional situation and the country itself. Consequently, Russia openly declared that prominent Western entities are backing Armenia's provocative actions.
While Russia engages in a verbal confrontation with Armenia, the West has embarked on a mission to fill the ensuing vacuum in Armenian political power and public sentiment left by Russia. It's evident that the West regards Armenia as a unique entity in the region and aims to establish a precedent by offering Armenia direct security assurances.
At the same time, this move can be interpreted as Western intervention in the process of finalizing a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Regrettably, Azerbaijan's constructive acceptance of the EU and US mediation proposals is being exploited by the mentioned entities. The West blatantly showcases total disregard for Azerbaijan's interests. This also sets a significant precedent, severely constraining Brussels and Washington's mediation capabilities from the perspective of official Azerbaijan.
Armenia's recent provocation in Nakhchivan has ignited tensions with Azerbaijan and Russia. Any escalation could deal another blow to Russia's standing in Armenia. Thus, Armenia's breach of the ceasefire in Nakhchivan marks the onset of provocations.
Nikol Pashinyan appears committed to his provocative agenda, perhaps seeking to drag Azerbaijan into war to substantiate his recent claim that failure to reclaim villages will lead to conflict. By accusing Azerbaijan of seeking a pretext for war, Pashinyan may be attempting to conceal planned provocations.
It's likely that Armenia and instigators of border escalation aim to portray Armenia as a victim under attack, driving these provocations. However, Armenian authorities must realize that such plans won't intimidate Azerbaijan, whose decisions are resolute, as President Ilham Aliyev has outlined.
Should Armenia's uncertain steps and propensity for escalation persist, posing a threat to national security and sovereignty, Azerbaijan reserves the right to strike tactical targets in response to provocations.
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