Ukraine, Kiev / corr Trend D.Bobesyuk / The Baku summit of GUAM has confirmed its prospect, despite the forecasts of a rapid 'political death' of GUAM. "The current summit of GUAM has confirmed that the organization has a principle prospect. Perhaps, this is the major result," said Vladimir Fesenko , the Chairman of the Ukrainian Center of Applied Political Researches ' Penta '.
As an alternative to CIS the four post-Soviet republics Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Moldova, established this format in 1997. In 2006 the first summit in Kiev adopted a decision to announce GUAM as an international organization and renamed it as the Organization for Democracy and Economic Development - GUAM. During the Summit held in Baku on the 19th of June the chairmanship of GUAM was transferred from the Ukraine to Azerbaijan.
It is important that GUAM functions currently, Fesenko noted. He was commenting on the results of the Baku summit. "The most predicted rapid political death, or the so-called 'political hovering' for the organization. GUAM goes ahead, though some people regarded it as an artificial establishment. The Baku summit also testifies for it. GAUM has a definite prospect, he said. The organization is full of potential." It depends on the level of coordinating and balancing of the political and economic interests. GUAM has existed in a political platform for a period of time. And the failure to realize the organization's potential is linked with the absence of economic aspects. Following the implementation of economic initiatives, the attention towards the organization and its potential will boost," Fesenko assured.
Regarding the decision of the member-countries on the implementation of the Odessa-Brody-Gdansk oil pipeline, Fesenko stated that along with the amount of investments, it requires interests not only by Poland, but from other European countries, which are currently oscillating. "Moreover, it is necessary to take into consideration the interests of countries on the other sides of the Caspian Sea. It is not a secret that lately Russia has begun actively functioning in Central Asia and attracting Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and other countries from Central Asia to cooperate with the implementation of full-size energy projects. In this case it is a necessary search for balance between political and economic interests," the political expert stressed. He noted that if GUAM were to carry out a counter-Russian project, it might evolve a number of problems. Therefore, it is necessary to release definite political tension around these projects in order to reject projects directed against Russia, However in order to expand a circle of potential participants, the expenses must be aimed towards other European countries.
According to Fesenko , there are concrete initiatives and agreements within the framework of GUAM, but still too many problems arise for their full implementation. In this respect the political expert mentioned the political crisis in the Ukraine as, "irritability and jealousy" by Russia. "Particularly, an initiative on the possible establishment of a peacekeeping contingent within GUAM will be considered, by Russia as a potential direction against Russia's impact in the post-Soviet area. Hence, it is necessary to seek a balance in the relationships between GUAM and CIS," Fesenko noted. In addition, the level of implementation of the GUAM initiative in regional security will affect the future of the organization, he added.