BAKU, Azerbaijan, June 18. From 2025 onwards, the OPEC+ bloc is anticipated to experience a return to production growth, albeit at a relatively modest average rate, Trend reports.
As the International Energy Agency (IEA) anticipates, this growth is driven by an increase in the call on OPEC crude, which is expected to rise by 1.1 mb/d over the period of 2025-2028.
Slowing demand and a deceleration in non-OPEC+ output contribute to this trend.
Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iraq are projected to be the main contributors to the increased production, as investments in projects beyond the Middle East face challenges. These core Gulf producers may need to sustain their supply at or near-record levels to compensate for ongoing declines from African and Asian members of the bloc, as well as Russia, the agency noted.
Apart from the Middle East, Kazakhstan is also expected to reach record highs in its oil production.
Meanwhile, the bloc’s oil production, including condensates and NGLs, dropped by 3.1 mb/d to an average 52.1 mb/d in 2022, as it phased out record 2020 cuts.
"This year could see a decline of 470,000 b/d, with Russia – under the weight of sanctions – and Middle East producers, restricted by extra OPEC+ cuts that are due to run through 2024, all pumping less. The 23-member alliance agreed to reduce supply in late 2022 to support the market as the economic outlook worsened, pressuring prices. Output dropped further in May 2023 after a new round of voluntary cuts announced by select countries in April took effect. In early June, the bloc extended its output reduction along with voluntary cuts through 2024," the IEA said.