BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 24. Global oil demand is expected to reach its peak at 102 mb/d in the late 2020s, and then gradually decline to 97 mb/d by 2050, Trend reports.
As evident from the outlook provided by the International Energy Agency (IEA), according to the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), world oil demand is projected to drop by the forecasted period due to reduced demand in road transport as EVs gain popularity, offset by increased oil usage in petrochemicals and aviation. In practical terms, this suggests a prolonged period of demand fluctuating slightly above and below a long-term average.
Meanwhile, in the Announced Pledges Scenario (APS), there is a more substantial decline in demand, dropping to 93 mb/d by 2030 and further down to 55 mb/d by 2050. Notably, EVs dominate passenger car and truck sales in 2050, resulting in a steeper decline in oil demand for road transport. However, petrochemicals and aviation see increased oil usage, the agency noted. Efforts to restrict single-use plastics and boost plastics recycling don't prevent an overall rise in global plastics demand. Sustainable aviation fuels gain traction, but aviation oil use continues to grow until the mid-2030s.
Furthermore, in the e Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (NZE), oil demand falls to 77 mb/d by 2030, the IEA says. The electrification of vehicles, efficiency improvements, and low-emissions fuels contribute significantly to reducing oil use.
By 2050, oil demand drops to just under 25 mb/d, with a substantial portion used as a petrochemical feedstock and in non-combusted products. Notably, there's a wide variation in oil demand outlook across emerging market and developing economies compared to advanced economies, the outlook remarked.
At the same time, advanced economies see oil demand declining by 35-85 percent by 2050, whereas emerging markets and developing economies experience a range from a 20-percent increase to a 70-percent decrease during this period, the IEA added.