BAKU, Azerbaijan, April 15. The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects that non-OECD countries will be the main drivers of global demand growth in 2024 and 2025, with increases of 1.3 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively, Trend reports.
According to the IEA, China's share of non-OECD gains will decrease from 80 percent in 2023 to 43 percent in 2024 and 27 percent in 2025, although it will still lead in growth at 330,000 b/d next year.
Furthermore, India and the Middle East will follow closely, with increases of 230,000 b/d and 220,000 b/d, respectively.
Petrochemical feedstocks like LPG, ethane, and naphtha will contribute over 40 percent of the increase in both years, largely due to China's influence, the agency noted.
Updated annual data from the IEA has led to revisions in baseline demand for non-OECD economies, with an increase of approximately 150,000 b/d for 2022. This includes a boost in China's demand by 70,000 b/d and an upgrade for Hong Kong by 30,000 b/d.
However, as the agency noted, Indian demand for 2022 was revised lower by 160,000 b/d, primarily due to better estimates of refinery fuel consumption.
Notably, Kuwaiti naphtha demand has been revised higher since 2010, adding 90,000 b/d to 2022 figures. This reflects improved reporting of aromatics operations in the Middle East's petrochemical sector.