BAKU, Azerbaijan, December 3. The Central Bank of Azerbaijan’s (CBA) latest forecasts indicate that the country is set to see an economic growth of 3.9 percent for 2024 in terms of total Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and a robust 6.5 percent for the non-oil GDP, Trend reports citing the regulatory body.
The key catalysts for expansion in the non-oil sector are anticipated to be the ultimate consumer expenditure from households and governmental entities.
"October saw an upward revision to the economic growth forecast, with a 0.3 percentage point increase for 2024 compared to the July forecast and a 0.8 percentage point increase for the non-oil sector.
Expectations of higher real growth rates for household consumption [4.4 percent in the October forecast compared to 4.1 percent in the July forecast] and government sector consumption [7.9 percent in the October forecast compared to 6.6 percent in July] are driving the revision.
For 2025, the economic growth forecast stands at 3.3 percent for the total GDP and 5.1 percent for the non-oil GDP. The October forecast for 2025 was revised upwards by 1.2 percentage points for the total GDP and 0.7 percentage points for the non-oil sector compared to the previous July forecast.
The adjustments for 2025 include an increase in expected final consumption, particularly in the household [5.6 percent in the October forecast compared to 5.5 percent in July] and government sectors [6.8 percent in the October forecast compared to 5.7 percent in July], reflecting an anticipation of stronger real growth.
However, a significant risk for economic growth in the coming year is the potential limitation of exports and foreign investments, influenced by expectations of a global recession,” the CBA report noted.
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