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Future of global economy remains obscure

Business Materials 1 August 2009 12:22 (UTC +04:00)

Azerbaijan, Baku, July 30 / Trend , A.Badalova/

Opinions concerning the situation in the global economy differ day by day. Some believe the worst period is over, and there are enough signs of economic recovery, while others believe that the crisis had not yet reached its bottom.

The World Bank (WB) forecasts the global economy will decline by 2.9 percent in 2009. The bank had previously predicted the decline at 1.7 percent. The bank's experts believe despite some signs of improvement, prospects for recovery of economic growth in most countries remain uncertain. And, basically, it refers to the countries of Eastern Europe. GDP in the United States will drop three percent in 2009 and grow by 0-0.3 percent in 2010, the bank reported.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts the economy in the developed countries will fall by 3.6 percent compared to 1.5 percent growth in developing countries in 2009.

The organization expects sustainable recovery of the global economy will begin no earlier than 2010. It is projected that the economy in the developed countries will increase by 0.6 percent and 4.7 percent in developing countries next year.

The most rigorous forecast has been made by analysts of one of leading British consulting company - Capital Economics. They predicted GDP in Eurozone will decline by 5 percent in 2009, while there will be zero growth in 2010.

Nevertheless, analysts of the British company are optimistic about the recovery of the economic situation in the United States. "It is not likely that the recession will last a long time. If it has ended in the second quarter, it will happen in the third quarter of this year, the British company told Trend .

The analysts forecast GDP in the United States will fall 3 percent in 2009, while the GDP growth will be one percent in 2010.

German Deutsche Bank predicts world economic growth in 2010 to be 2.5 percent compared to a two-percent growth forecast by the bank earlier.

The U.S. Goldman Sachs Bank expects the global GDP in 2009 will drop by 1.2 percent. The bank had previously predicted a fall at 1.3 percent. GDP growth in 2010 will be 3.5 percent versus 3.3 percent, forecast by the bank earlier.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) forecasts the global growth will be 2.3 percent in 2010. The cartel expects the growth in the United States in 2010 will be 1.2 percent versus a 2.7-percent fall in 2009. GDP of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development will fall by 3.9 percent this year and increase by 0.7 percent next year.

The level of economic growth in 2009-2010:

Organization

2009 (percent)

2010 (percent)

World Bank

- 2.9 (G)

- 3 (U)

0 - 0.3 (U)

IMF

- 3.6 (D)

1.5 (DV)

0.6 (D)

4.7 (DV)

Capital Economics

- 5 (Е)

- 3 (U)

0 (Е)

1 (U)

Deutsche Bank

-

2.5 (G)

Goldman Sachs

- 1.2 (G)

3.5 (G)

OPEC

2.7 (U)

- 3.9 (О)

2.3 (G)

0.7 (О)

G - global GDP

U - U.S.

D - developed countries

DV - developing countries

E - Eurozone

O - Organization for Economic Cooperation & Development (OECD)

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