Western analysts' forecasts price on gold for 2010-2011

Azerbaijan, Baku, July 7 / Trend A.Badalova /

Las week, the price on gold fell by 3.5 percent dropping below the $1,200 per troy ounce. But, generally, the dynamics of the price on gold remains positive for the past period of the year, despite the strong fall of quotations since late May falling. The year the price on gold rose by 10 percent since early 2010 thanks to the debt problem in several European countries.

Western analysts forecast a significant increase in the price on gold in the coming year amid fears about the financial situation in Europe.

Analysts at the Swiss bank UBS expect the price on gold to reach $1,500 per troy ounce over the next. Deepening of the debt problems of the euro zone may serve as the main impetus to growth in the prices. Nevertheless, the bank's analysts do not exclude the possible risks and lowering prices.

The U.S. investment bank Morgan Stanley significantly increased the forecasts on the price on gold. According to new forecasts, the average price on gold will amount to $ 1,200 per troy ounce in 2010 compared to $1,159 forecasted previously.

Analysts at the U.S. investment bank Goldman Sachs also forecast a significant rise in the price on gold in the short term. Analysts expect the figure to exceed $1,400 per troy ounce in 2010.

Bank of America-Merrill Lynch predicts rise in the price on gold to $1,500 per troy ounce by late 2011. Based on analysts' expectations, the average price on gold will be $1,200 per troy ounce in 2010 and $1,350 per troy ounce in 2011. The price on gold will be $1,240 per troy ounce in the third quarter of 2010 and $1,260 per troy ounce in the fourth.

Analysts of Deutsche Bank expect the average price on gold in 2010 at $1,215 per troy ounce compared to $1,147, forecasted previously. Analysts predict a rise in prices to $1,450 and $1,600 per troy ounce in 2011 and 2012, respectively.

Forecasts of U.S. bank JP Morgan and Britain's Capital Economics remain moderate forecasts.

Analysts at JP Morgan forecast the average price on gold at $1,177.5 per troy ounce in 2010. The price on gold is projected to reach $1,250 per troy ounce in the third quarter and $ 1200- in the fourth.  Analysts expect the figure to reach $1,175 per troy ounce in 2011.

Capital Economics forecasted the price on gold to amount to $1,100 per troy ounce in the third quarter of 2010 and drop to $950 per barrel in the fourth quarter and remain at this level in 2011.

Forecasts on the price on gold for 2010-2011 (in $ / troy ounce)

Companies/Banks

2010

2011

Morgan Stanley

1,200

-

Goldman Sachs

1,400

-

BofA Merrill Lynch

1,200

1,240 (III quarter)

1,260 (IV quarter)

1350

Deutsche Bank

1,215

1450

JP Morgan

1177.5

1,250 (III quarter)

1,200 (IV quarter)

1175

Capital Economics

1,100 (III quarter)

950   (IV quarter)

950

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