Short-term forecasts on global economic growth

Business Materials 9 July 2010 18:32 (UTC +04:00)

Azerbaijan, Baku, July 9 /Trend, A.Badalova/

Despite the financial problems in the Euro-zone and concerns over slowing of growth rates, the world economy shows the dynamics of gradual recovery.

According to the quarterly report of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), in the first quarter of 2010, the world economy grew at a rate above 5 percent in annual calculation. The main source of growth in the global economy was Asia.

On the backdrop of indicators exceeding the expectations in the first half of 2010, the IMF raised its forecasts for global growth this and next year. According to the latest IMF forecasts, the global economy will grow by 4.6 percent in 2010 and by 4.3 percent in 2011. Earlier, the IMF forecasted global GDP growth at 4.2 and 4.3 percent in 2010 and 2011 respectively.

According to IMF forecasts, the GDP in Euro-zone will grow by 1 percent in 2010 and 1.3 percent in 2011. GDP growth in developing countries is projected at 6.8 percent this year and 6.4 percent - next year.

The World Bank also raised its estimate for global growth this year from 2.7 to 3.3 percent. According to analysts of Britain's leading independent macroeconomic research consultancy Capital Economics, global economic growth in 2010 will total 4.5 percent. In 2011, analysts predict a slowdown in world economic growth by 3.5 percent.

British analysts forecast Euro-zone GDP growth at 1 percent in 2010 and 0.5 percent in 2011. According to the results of the third quarter of 2010, the region's GDP will grow by 0.2 percent compared to 0.6 percent growth in the second quarter of the year. In the fourth quarter, analysts predict zero growth in Euro-zone economy.

Analysts of one of the largest U.S. investment bank Morgan Stanley forecast Euro-zone economic growth at 0.9 percent in 2010 and 1.1 percent in 2011.

Forecasts by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) regarding world economic growth for the year increased from 3.5 percent to 3.8 percent. According to the report of OPEC, the main reason for the change in forecasts became Japan, where strong exports to Asia led to better than expected indicators in the first quarter of the year. GDP growth in Japan this year is expected to reach 2.7 percent compared to 1.5 percent forecasted by OPEC earlier. OPEC forecasts Euro-zone economic growth this year at 0.7 percent, the United States - 2.8 percent, the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) - 2.1 percent, China - 9.5 percent, India - 7.3 percent.

World economic growth forecasts in 2010-2011 (in %):





4,6 (М)

1 (Е)

4,3 (М)

1,3 (Е)


3,3 (М)


Capital Economics

4,5 (М)

1 (Е)

3,5 (М)

0,5 (Е)

Morgan Stanley

0,9 (Е)

1,1 (Е)


3,8 (М)

0,7 (Е)


М - world economy

Е - Euro-zone economy