Recession in EU not to be as serious as during world financial crisis
Azerbaijan, Baku, Nov. 28 / Trend N.Ismayilova/
There is a high probability that Europe will fall into recession again, but it doesn't seem as serious as it was in 2009, vice president for development of IE Business School Gonzalo Garland told Trend during his visit to Baku.
"This is one of big things being discussed," he said. "The crisis started in 2008. The recovery started in 2010. It is losing in 2011. So, we may assume that European countries will be falling in the second recession. And they have already started right now."
Garland said that although the second great depression has been avoided, right now from a macro economic point of view, there is a high probability that Europe will fall into recession again. But it doesn't seem as serious as it was in 2009.
"In 2009 the world financial crisis involves Europe, the U.S, Latin America, Japan," he said. "This time it will be more localized."
Garland said that, the course of Euro has been relatively stable to the dollar now. But taking into consideration this situation, it may weaken a little more.
"My guess is that it might go down to 1,2 or up to 1,4 but it will keep its stability," he said.
The general situation in Europe adds more uncertainty to the situation with oil prices, and there are risks of oil prices going down slightly, but not as strongly as in the period of crisis.
"The situation is now that the U.S and most countries of the Europe do not have enough ammunition to stop the recession," he said. "So we will continue to see more non-traditional monetary policy, such as quantitative revising, European Central bank's buying amount of debt, and also discussions on Eurobonds."