Iran not been able to increase real non-oil export

Baku, Azerbaijan, Dec. 10

By Dalga Khatinoglu:

Amid falling oil prices by 41 percent during last months, Iranian President says the country's non-oil export is expected to reach $50 billion, 17 percent more than the previous year.

Rouhani told during the cabinet meeting on Dec.10 that the next fiscal years' budget will less depend on oil revenues, IRNA reported.

According to the latest Custom Administration report, published last week, Iran's non-oil exports stood at $31.447 billion from March 21 to Nov.23, a period that corresponds to the eight months of Iran's current fiscal year.

During this period, the country's non-oil exports increased by 19.72 percent, with comparing the same period last year, however, the share of condensate and semi-raw petroleum products in total non-oil export is huge.

Iran includes the gas condensate, a raw ultra-light crude oil, as well as propane, butane, tar and other semi-raw materials in non-oil exports basket. By excluding the petrochemical products, as well as condensate, other non-oil exports' growth is about 3.92 percent, amounted $13.757 billion.

Iran exported $8.729 billion worth of condensate during last eight months, indicates 53.5 percent growth compared to the same period in last year.

Below is a table, comparing Iran's oil products and petrochemical export value during last eight months based on Iran Custom Administration's monthly reports:

Product

Exported volume and value

Y/Y growth

Propane

1.463 million metric tons, $1.375 billion

90.71%

Butane

996,000 metric tons, $924 million

41.94%

Tar

1.649 million metric tons, $827 million

15.50%

Polyethylene

575,000 metric tons, $925 million

92.28%

Total petrochemical products

11.339 million metric tons, $8.961 billion

22.05%

A senior expert at Iran's Center for Strategic Research within Expediency Discernment Council of the System Jamshid Pajouyan told Trend Dec.10 that Iran hasn't been able to improve the real non-oil export value yet.

Falling OPEC oil basket price from $107.89 in mid-June to $62.33 on Dec.9 was unexpected for Iran, which had set its yearly budget based on $100/barrel prices. While, according to its budget law, Iran should have exported 1.3 million barrels per day of crude oil (including the natural gas condensate), the statistics released by Reuters on Nov.29 reported that Iran's oil exports to Asia stood at 1.11 million barrels per day during the ten months of 2014.

Iran also has about 0.1 mbpd of oil export to Turkey, but the Iranian Oil Ministry has confirmed that targeted 1.3 mbmpd oil export hasn't been realized.

Iran's Government Spokesman Mohammad Baqer Nobakht said Dec.9 that people should remember that the government has to manage the economy based on $24 billion oil export revenues. Iran's yearly petroleum export revenues were about $120 in 2011.

Now, Iranian government is to compensate the fall of oil revenues with non-oil exports partly.

Pajouyan, who was the head of Iran's state Competition Committee under the Ministry of Economy and Finance until November 2013 says that exporting raw materials for energy-rich Iran has been the economy's ailment, while the country exports a huge amount of raw mineral exports, such as raw aluminum, iron ore, etc as well.

Iran's top exported goods during last year:

Number

Product

Volume

Value

1

Iron ore

14 million metric tons

$851 million

2

Methanol

2.267 million metric tons

$813 million

3

Urea

1.803 million metric tons

$784 million

4

propane

0.8 million metric tons

$721 million

5

Tar

1.44 million metric tons

$716 million

6

Cement

8.872 million metric tons

$662 million

7

Butane

0.73 million metric tons

$651 million

8

Polyethylene

0.428 million metric tons

$570 million

9

NGLs

0.497 million metric tons

$464 million

10

pistachio

49,000 tons

$401 million

Dalga Khatinoglu is an expert on Iran's energy sector, head of Trend Agency's Iran news service
Follow him on @dalgakhatinoglu

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