Astana, Kazakhstan, Jan. 29
By Daniyar Mukhtarov - Trend:
The share of the Chinese Yuan in global trade will only grow from year to year, the director of the Kazakh Center for Macroeconomic Research Oljas Khudaibergenov said.
"The share of the yuan in global trade recently amounted to 1-2 percent, and at the beginning of 2014, the figure was 12 percent. This year its share is already 16 percent, and from now on, it will only grow in world trade," Khudaibergenov said at a press conference in Astana.
He said that such a rate depends on the efforts of the country itself to promote its own national currency.
"China creates its own clearing centers in order to conduct calculations not in dollars, but directly, through the direct negotiations," said Khudaibergenov. "One can see that China pursues a consistent policy so that yuan would become a convertible currency and so that it would be recognized everywhere."
He recalled that a similar center was opened by China and Kazakhstan and tenge - yuan transactions are carried out directly without the involvement of the dollar.
"The state cannot instruct companies in which particular currency they need to pay," he said. "Decisions must be made by the companies themselves, while the demand for the dollar (in Kazakhstan) is high."
The expert explained that the dedollarization of the economy does not imply the rejection of the dollar and its involvement in trade transactions.
"It is necessary to eliminate some wrong things domestically, for example, calculations are made in dollars when buying a car or an apartment, deposits in dollars, tractors are imported at a fixed price in dollars," said the expert. "This is wrong, and it must be eliminated ... But the dollar needs to remain, especially in circulation, in the export-import operations."
He said that even at an oil price of $40 per barrel, Kazakhstan receives enough dollars to pay for foreign exchange costs.
"Problems arise due to the excess demand for foreign exchange in the country, which creates pressure on our reserves," said Khudaibergenov. "Everyhting is converted into dollars, because people do not want to lose due to devaluation. And so that people, in the first place - depositors, wouldn't lose due to the devaluation, it is necessary to introduce a guarantee from the National Bank on exchange differences on tenge deposits for more than a year."
He said that the real exchange rate of the dollar should be at the level of 188 KZT-190 KZT.
"There is a nominal exchange rate and a real exchange rate," said Khudaibergenov. "So now the real exchange rate should be 188 KZT- 190 KZT."
The official USD exchange rate set by the National Bank as of Jan.29 in Kazakhstan is 184.45 KZT.
Edited by CN