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Review of Georgia's economic development during Feb-Mar 2020

Business Materials 7 April 2020 13:23 (UTC +04:00)
Review of Georgia's economic development during Feb-Mar 2020

BAKU, Azerbaijan, April 7

By Tamilla Mammadova - Trend:

Georgian GDP grew by 2.2 percent year-on-year in February 2020, Trend reports with reference to TBC Research Group at Georgian TBC Bank.

Turnover of the VAT payers, the measure used in rapid estimates, reached 6.3 billion lari (over $2 billion), showing an increase of 10.5 percent year-on-year.

Trade, information & communication, real estate activities, trade sectors contributed positively, while manufacturing, construction, and transportation and storage sectors shrank year-on-year.

Annual inflation stood at 6.1 percent in March, down from 6.4 percent in the previous month.

Among the major sub-categories, prices of food & non-alcoholic beverages (+13.4 percent year-on-year) and hotels & restaurants (+8.9 percent year-on-year) showed the highest growth. On the other hand, prices of clothing & footwear (-0.9 percent year-on-year), communication (-1.3 percent year-on-year), and recreation & culture (-4.4 percent year-on-year) services retreated over the same period.

On a monthly basis, Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation went up by 0.7 percent, with the highest contribution from food & non-alcoholic beverages (+2 percent month-on-month), possible due to boosted household purchases amid lockdown. At the same time, prices of transportation declined (-0.8 percent month-on-month), likely reflecting the slump in oil prices globally.

Interest rates on government securities moved inconsistently in March 2020. The yield on 5-year bond jumped to 9.64 percent (+0.63 percentage points month-on-month), as it reached 8.89 percent for 1-year (+0.02 percentage points month-on-month) bond, but the yield for 2-year bond fell to 8.84 percent (-0.20 percentage points month-on-month). At the same time, the rates for 1-day Thunderbird International Business Review (TIBR) were up to 9.06 percent (+0.03 percentage points month-on-month) respectively, while they were down marginally for 6-month securities.

Changes in the rates reflect increased uncertainties regarding the inflation expectation in the light of COVID-19, while at the end of 2019 the rates were generally stable and started to decline at the beginning of 2020.

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