BAKU, Azerbaijan, Feb. 13
By Tamilla Mamedova - Trend:
Fitch Ratings has affirmed Georgia’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at ‘BB’, Trend reports via the Fitch.
A consistent and credible policy framework underpins Georgia's relative resilience to shocks.
These credit strengths are balanced by a high share of foreign-currency denominated government debt, low external liquidity and higher external financing requirements relative to peers.
The Negative Outlook reflects the significant ongoing impact of the coronavirus pandemic on Georgia's economy.
Fitch forecasts real GDP growth of 4.3 percent in 2021 and 5.8 percent in 2022, after a pandemic-driven contraction estimated at 6.1 percent in 2020. Fitch projects Georgia's economic recovery at a faster pace than the median growth rates of its 'BB' peers (4 percent in 2021 and 3.7 percent in 2022).
"The main downside risks to our baseline relate to uncertainties attached to the evolution of the pandemic and the efficacy of the vaccination rollout. GDP growth will be predominately domestic demand driven, as easing of national restrictions supports private consumption, and higher than historical public infrastructure spending drives investment despite subdued private sector recovery," said the agency.
"Net exports of goods should benefit from increased demand from key trading partners. The recovery will remain constrained by the tourism sector: we expect revenues at 30 percent of 2019 levels in 2021, rising to 80 percent in 2022," the report said.
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