BAKU, Azerbaijan, April 1
Trend:
The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) predicts the active recovery growth of the economy of Kazakhstan, Trend reports with reference to the macroeconomic forecast for 2021 published by the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB).
The country's GDP will increase by 4 percent this year.
The further weakening of the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on business activity will be the key factor. The biggest growth will occur in the intra-annual dynamics in the second quarter of 2021, which will be primarily stipulated by the low base of the same period of the previous year, when the work of most of the enterprises was suspended due to the introduction of quarantine measures.
The weakening of sanitary requirements will create the conditions for the restoration of the growth dynamics in the service sector, primarily, in wholesale and retail trade, the restaurant business and the activity of cultural and entertainment centers.
The lifting of restrictions on cross-border movement will be uneven, which will delay the recovery of activity in the transport and logistics sector and in the field of international tourism.
The fiscal stimulus measures will continue to support the economy, although their contribution will slightly decrease amid an increase in the economic activity in 2021 and a high base of 2020. The economy is planned to recover up to the pre-crisis level – the fourth quarter of 2019 by late 2021.
The economic growth is expected to accelerate in 2022–2023 as far as the new capacities are introduced. An increase in business activity in 2022 will be fully stipulated by the complete lifting of sanitary restrictions in Kazakhstan and countries - trading partners.
The restoration of international passenger traffic and the full functioning of supply chains will lead to the intensification of international trade in goods and services and will become an impetus for the growth of foreign investments.
Moreover, oil production at the Tengiz field is expected to increase in 2023 as a result of the implementation of the expansion project. Thus, according to the EDB estimates, the indicator of GDP growth of the Republic of Kazakhstan in 2022 and 2023 will increase up to 4.5 percent and 5.1 percent, respectively.