Azerbaijan, Baku, Jan. 12 / Trend , A.Badalova/ The Russia-Ukraine gas war may give a serious boost for the construction of alternative gas pipelines to European countries bypassing Russia.
"At the same time, Caspian and Central Asian gas producers don't want to be hostages to potential transit problems between Russia and its eastern neighbors. For this reason, they are likely to support the construction of alternative gas pipeline which do not run through Russia," Shamil Yenikeyeff, Research Fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, told Trend via e-mail.
Due to lack of a contract for 2009, Russia's Gazprom suspended gas supplies to Ukraine on Jan. 1. According to Gazprom officials, Ukraine resorted to illegal consumption of the gas transited through its territory to other countries. Gazprom reported that Ukraine had siphoned off gas in such great amounts that the gas was not reaching EU countries at all. So, the Russian gas company terminated gas transit to the EU via the territory of Ukraine.
Gas conflict between Russia and Ukraine increases the significance of the Nabucco gas pipeline project," Reinhard Mitschek, the managing director of the Nabucco Gas Pipeline International, said earlier, adding that the consortium intended to start forming a portfolio of short-term seasonal gas supplies from the Caucasus and Central Asia to EU countries as soon as possible.
The Czech Republic stated its intention to accelerate the construction of the Nabucco
during its presidency over the EU. The official Prague plans to convene a
summit of the "Southern Corridor" in spring 2009, at which the Nabucco participating
countries will take the necessary decisions, writes the Komsomolskaya Pravda
newspaper.
According to Yenikeyeff, the Russo-Ukrainian gas war will give a serious boost for the Nord Stream and South Stream gas pipelines. However, a lot will depend on the availability of adequate gas volumes to fill the new pipelines, and the vital investment for the development of new and existing hydrocarbon fields and the pipeline infrastructure,
In the current economic circumstances, the key question is where this investment is going to come from, he said. Another important issue is whether Russia and Ukraine could agree on a new long-term transit regime.
If Moscow and Kiev fail, then Europe should expect a similar situation for a couple of years: until the new pipelines are constructed, said Yenikeyeff. As a result of the talks, last week Russia and the EU signed a protocol to monitor the transit of the Russian gas. When signing the protocol, Ukraine unilaterally added a separate declaration. Its contents were not officially disclosed, but Russia announced the declaration unacceptable.
The expert believes that in the long run this could have serious implications for Russia if Central Asian/Caspian gas goes elsewhere and for Ukraine as a transit country which is likely to face even more difficult economic times ahead.
Carlo Stagnaro, Director of the Energy & Environment Department at the Italian Bruno Leoni Institute believes that as a result of the conflict, Russia will be able to obtain some increase in the gas price to Ukraine. In 2009 gas prices will keep falling, so the gap between market prices and prices for Ukraine will shrink, he said.
"Moscow might try, then, to achieve a greater degree of connection between Ukraine prices and market prices, in order to reduce the extent to which it subsidizes the country as prices grow again," Stagnaro told Trend .
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