Azerbaijan, Baku, Sept. 25 / Trend , A.Badalova/
Over the last year, Azerbaijan has received a lot of interesting proposals for the supply routes of its own gas, the bulk of whose production comes from the Shah Deniz field. Recently, Kazakhstan has offered to become involved in the project of transporting natural gas to China via the Kazakhstan-China pipeline. Given the scale of the Chinese market, and forecasts of demand for gas in this country, the proposal looks interesting.
An offer to transport the Azerbaijani gas via the Kazakhstan-China pipeline was made in September during the meeting between the Presidents of the Kazakhstan National KazMunaiGaz Company Kairgeldy Kabyldin and SOCAR (State Oil Company of Azerbaijan) Rovnag Abdullayev.
According to the forecasts of the Asian Development Bank, China's growth in 2009 will amount to 8.2 percent. In 2010, the bank forecast GDP growth to up 8.9 percent. Inflation in China in recent years has not exceeded 10-15 percent.
Summary table of macroeconomic indicators in China:
|
Year |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
|
GDP (%) |
13 |
9 |
8.2 |
8.9 |
|
Inflation (%) |
4.8 |
15 (January-February) |
8.6 (January-February) |
- |
Along with rapid economic growth, demand for gas is growing in China every year.
Demand for gas in China has begun to increase sharply since the mid 1990's. In 1995, gas consumption was only 17.7 billion cubic meters. At the beginning of 2009, according to BP, the demand for gas in the country reached 80.7 billion cubic meters, which is 15.8 percent higher than consumed in 2007. The gas demand in China in 2008 comprised 2.7 percent of the world total demand.
Proved gas reserves in China, according to BP, amounted to 2.46 trillion cubic meters in early 2009. Gas production in the country last year amounted to 76.1 billion cubic meters, which is 9.6 percent above the volume of production in 2007.
According to forecasts, gas demand in China will continue to grow. According to some projections, by 2010 gas demand in the country will grow to 150 billion cubic meters, by 2020 - up to 280 billion cubic meters as a result of economic growth and industrial development.
Turkmenistan intends to be a key gas supplier in China and plans to start gas deliveries to the country in December through Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. Initial deliveries of the Turkmen gas to China will amount to 13 billion cubic meters per year.
One of the possible suppliers of gas to China may also become Russia, but at present a price issues remains open between the two countries. Earlier it was expected that the first gas deliveries to China would begin in 2011. According to the agreement, signed in March 2006 between Gazprom and the Chinese State Corporation CNCP, Russia's gas will be in the volume of 68 billion cubic meters of gas per year via the West and East pipeline. However, due to the reluctance of both sides in making concessions casts shadow on the possibility of gas supplies to China by the scheduled date.
The "Kazakhstan-China" (AGP) pipeline project is a part of "Central Asia" (CAGP) project which is a special transit system for transportation of gas throughout three republics: from Turkmenistan deposits through Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan into China. AGP is a system of two parallel pipelines of 1304.5 km. and 1,067 mm. diameters. The Kazakh part of the pipeline starts on Uzbekistan-Kazakhstan boarder and stretches further 650 km. to the East on the Kazakh territory and ends on the boarder between Kazakhstan and China at the Horgos.
According to the SOCAR official, the Azerbaijani gas, although the priority of its transport is Europe, may still be delivered to Asia. He said China is a country with the greatest needs in the gas, which is looking for markets for its purchase.
The head of KazMunaiGaz Kairgeldy Kabyldin said gas transportation via Kazakhstan to China may become an alternative export route for Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan, he said, displayed interest in this project.
Kazakhstan does not rule out that it could work with the Azerbaijani gas under a swap.
"We can exchange the Azerbaijani gas. It is clear that in a natural kind, the Azerbaijani gas cannot get into the pipe - in China, but there is an opportunity to exchange it for some volumes in Europe," said Daniyar Berlibaev, the managing director of KazMunaiGaz.
According to BP, the proven gas reserves of Azerbaijan were estimated at 1.2 trillion cubic meters as for Jan. 1, 2009.
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