Western analysts forecast oil prices for nearest two years

Oil&Gas Materials 5 February 2010 15:51 (UTC +04:00)

Azerbaijan, Baku, Feb. 5 / corr Trend A.Badalova /

Oil prices continue declining in the world markets. Last week oil prices dropped to their minimum over the past 1.5 months. As of results of Wednesday trading sessions, March futures for Brent branched oil at the London Exchange declined by $0.14 to $75.92 per barrel.

March futures for WTI oil at the New York Mercantile Exchange dropped by $0.25 to $76.89 per barrel.

Despite the current fall, the analysts forecast rise in oil prices in the world market in the short-term. As of some forecasts, prices are probable to attain $100 per barrel by next year and even exceed this point.

According to forecasts of the US Energy Information Agency (EIA), oil prices at the world markets will increase considerably in the nearest two years compared to their current level. WTI prices will hit $80 per barrel in 2010, and rise to $84 per barrel in 2011, EIA forecasts.

Analysts of JPMorgan increased their forecasts on oil process this year. In accordance with new forecasts, WTI and Brent prices will reach $78.25 per barrel this year. In 2011 analysts predict the oil prices to increase to $90 per barrel.

Analysts of US investment bank Goldman Sachs predict the average oil prices at $90 per barrel in 2010 and $110 per barrel in 2011.

Meanwhile, analysts Morgan Stanley nalysts have changed their forecasts on oil prices, urging that WTI branded oil price will attain $95 per barrel by the end of 2010 and $100 per barrel in average in 2011.

Analysts of Bank of America-Merrill Lynch believe that oil prices will exceed $100 per barrel even at the beginning of 2011. In the first half of 2010 average price will hit $78.5 per barrel.

Analysts of Capital Economics, one of the leading British consulting companies on economic researches, remain pessimistic in their forecasts. According to their forecasts, Brent prices will drop by $50 per barrel by the end of 2010 and keep this position in 2011. Average price of this brand of oil will constitute $62.5 per barrel this year, the analysts urge. They forecast Brent price at $70 per barrel in the first and second quarters of this year and $60 per barrel next year.

Forecasted world oil prices in 2010 and 2011 (in $ per barrel)




80 (W)

84 (W)


78.25 (W)

78.25 (B)

90 (W)

90 (B)

Goldman Sachs

90 (W)

110 (W)

Morgan Stanley

95 (end year) (W)

100 (W)

BofA Merrill Lynch

78.5 (1st half year)


>100 (beginning) (W)

Capital Economics

62.5 (B)

50 (B)


B - Brent