U.S. forecasts growth in OPEC's oil production

Azerbaijan, Baku, Apr. 8 / Trend A.Badalova /

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicts an increase in oil production by OPEC at an average of 0.3mln bpd up to 29.4mln bpd in 2010 and compared to 29.5mln bpd that projected earlier.

Based on the EIA monthly report on short-term review of the energy market, the growth of oil production within OPEC, basically, will be observed in Angola and Nigeria.

Current quota of oil production set by OPEC is 24.85 million barrels per day. At the Vienna meeting March 17, OPEC decided not to change production levels. The next meeting of the cartel to address the issues of quotas will be held not before Oct.14.

In 2011, the agency expects OPEC's oil production to increase by 0.63 million barrels per day to 30.03 million barrels a day compared to 29.89 million barrels EIA forecasted last month.

Oil supplies by non-OPEC countries

Based on EIA forecast, in 2010 oil supply by non-OPEC countries will increase by 600,000 bpd, which is higher by 50,000 than projected earlier.

EIA forecasted that in 2010 oil supply by non-OPEC countries will hit 50.88 million bpd and 50.76 million bpd in 2011.

In 2010, growth in oil supplies by non-OPEC countries will be observed thanks to the U.S., Kazakhstan, Brazil and Azerbaijan, the agency reported.

The volume of oil supplies by former Soviet states will be 13.15 million bpd in 2010 and 13.11 million bpd in 2011.

EIA projected Azerbaijan's oil production at 1.13 million bpd in 2010 and 1.2 million bpd in 2011.

Kazakhstan will produce 1.65 million bpd in 2010 and 1.7 million bpd in 2011, the agency forecasted.

Based on EIA forecast, Turkmenistan's oil production will increase by 0.2 million bpd in 2010 and 0.21 million bpd in 2011.

The volume of the global oil supply will increase by 1.5 million bpd- up to 85.66 million bpd in 2010 and by 1.21mln bpd up to 86.87mln bpd in 2011, EIA forecasted.

World oil demand

Based on EIA forecast, in 2010 the world oil demand will increase by 1.46 million bpd - up to 85.5 million bpd, compared to 1.2 million bpd growth projected earlier. EIA explains the increase in its forecasts of demand, mainly by expectations of strong economic growth and level of the World GDP. Strong demand in 2010 is expected in the Asia-Pacific and the Middle East.

In 2011, EIA predicts an increase in the world oil demand by 1.61 million bpd - up to 87.11 million bpd.

Based on EIA estimates, in 2010, OECD countries' oil demand will increase by 0.03 million bpd - up to 45.41 million bpd and by 0.22 million bpd - up to 45.63 million bpd in 2011.

Non-OECD countries' oil demand will be 40.09 million bpd in 2010 and 41.48 million bpd in 2011.

Oil Prices

EIA expects that spot price of WTI will be higher than $81 per barrel in this spring. As a result of 2010, EIA expects the average price of this sort of oil just below $81 per barrel. In the fourth quarter of 2011 the price of WTI is expected to rise to $85 per barrel.

As a result of trades on Tuesday Apr.2, April futures price for the U.S. crude oil WTI increased by $0.22 - to $86.84 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The State Energy Information Administration is statistical agency of U.S Department of Energy established by the Congress in 1977.

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