Western analysts do not think sanctions against Iran to threaten Iranian export
Azerbaijan, Baku, July 9 / Trend A. Badalova /
The tightening of sanctions against Iran will have no impact on Iran's exports though it resulted in suspending of gasoline supply to the country by many large companies, Western analysts said.
"It does appear that more firms are ceasing their commercial contacts with Iran. I would hesitate to see broader impacts on the Asian gasoline market though, because Iran has been remarkably successful in the past at finding various avenues around foreign sanctions. For example, I do not expect to see much of an impact on Iranian exports to China," U.S analytical company Energy Security Analysis (ESAI) department head Rick Mueller told Trend via e-mail.
Iran's income today largely depends on oil export, mainly focused on South-East Asia.
Today, one of the consequences of the sanctions against Iran is to stop the supply of gasoline to the country by such major companies as French Total, British-Dutch RD / Shell, the Spanish Repsol, Dutch Vitol, Malaysia's Petronas.
According to the State U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Iran's oil export in 2008 amounted to about 2.6 million barrels per day. Profit from the Iranian oil export in 2008 amounted to about $73 billion.
Iran ranks first among the oil suppliers to Japan. According to the EIA, it exported 520 million barrels a day to Japan in 2008. Iran's export of oil to China amounted to 430 million barrels a day, India - 410 million, South Korea - 210 million barrels a day
The refusal by some suppliers to deliver gasoline to Iran will probably drive up the price Iran must pay for that gasoline, U.S analytical company Energy Security Analysis (ESAI) analyst Andrew Reed told Trend.
"I do not think this will affect retail gasoline prices in Iran though since gasoline is subsidized," Reed told Trend via e-mail.
The sanctions will not impact global gasoline prices, he said.