Azerbaijan, Baku, Dec. 4 / Trend A. Badalova /
One of the largest U.S. bank JP Morgan expects the world oil prices to hit $100 per barrel in the first half of 2011. According to the bank, the price for U.S. crude oil WTI will amount to $93 per barrel this year. The bank forecasted the price for North Sea Brent crude oil to the amount of $95 per barrel in 2010. Earlier, the bank forecasted the prices for WTI and Brent to the amount of $91.75 and $89.75 per barrel accordingly.
The bank forecasts the average price for Brent at $88 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2010, WTI - $86 per barrel.
According to the monthly report of JP Morgan on the oil market, the highest price for Brent and WTI will be $100 and $98 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2011.
The U.S bank expects the oil price will be fixed at $120 per barrel by late 2012. The average price for Brent as of 2012 will hit $105 per barrel, WTI - $104 per barrel.
As a result of trading on Thursday, December 2 the price for January futures for WTI on the New York Exchange increased by $1,25 up to $88 per barrel. Price for January futures for Brent increased by $1.82 up to $90.69 per barrel on the London Stock Exchange.
World oil demand
JP Morgan analysts forecast an increase in global oil demand at 1.5 per barrel up to $88.9 per barrel in 2011.
Global demand will hit 89.8 million barrels per day in 2011.
Of the total oil demand in 2011, about 46 million barrels a day will fall to OECD countries (the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development), 42.9 million barrels per day - countries non-members of the organization.
JP Morgan forecasts the increase in the world oil demand by 1.7 million barrels up to 90.6 million barrels per day in 2012. About 46.1 million barrels per day will fall to the OECD, 44.4 million barrels - non-members of the organization.
Demand for oil in Asian countries will hit 27.9 million barrels per day in 2011 and 28.7 million barrels per day in 2012. Most demand among Asian countries will fall to China - 9.6 million barrels a day this year and 10.2 million barrels a day in 2012.
The analysts forecast the global demand at 88.4 million in the fourth quarter.
OPEC Oil Supply
JP Morgan analysts forecast an increase of world oil supply by 1.5 million barrels per day up to 88.9 million barrels and 1.7 million up to 90.6 million barrels per day in 2011 and 2012, respectively.
Of the total world oil supply in 2011, about 29,4 million barrels a day or 0,4 million barrels a day more than the amount in 2010 will fall to OPEC in 2011. OPEC oil supply will increase by 1 million barrels up to 30.4 million barrels per day in 2012.
The level of supply will be 29.2 million barrels a day in the fourth quarter of 2010 and 29 million barrels per day as a result of the year.
Deliveries of oil by countries-non OPEC members
The bank forecasts increase in supplies by these countries in 2011 by 0.6 million up to 51 million barrels per day. The bank analysts predict an increase in oil supply by these countries by 0.2 million barrels up to 51.2 million barrels per day in 2012.
According to JP Morgan, oil production by countries non-OPEC-members increased in October by 285,000 barrels per day up to 40.9 million barrels per day. Oil production in the former Soviet Union in October increased by 0,254 million barrels per day up to 12.641 million barrels per day.