Azerbaijan, Baku, Feb. 26 / Trend /
One of the largest U.S. banks, JP Morgan Chase & Co. boosted its 2011 oil-price forecast for Brent oil by $9 to $104 a barrel, citing supply shut-ins in Libya, Bloomberg reported.
The $104 forecast "assumes that supply problems will be limited to Libya, that OPEC will supply additional oil and that demand for precautionary inventories will moderate over time from their crisis-levels of today," analysts led by Lawrence Eagles in New York said in a note to clients.
There is a "smaller but significant chance" prices could head toward $180 a barrel if the disruptions spread, with the probability at 5 percent, the report showed.
Brent will likely average $108 a barrel in the first quarter of the year, a 7.9 percent increase from its quarterly average to date of $100.08 a barrel, the report said. JPMorgan also raised its 2012 forecast by $5 to $110.
Brent crude oil for April settlement rose 78 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $112.14 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. Yesterday, it touched $119.79, the highest price since Aug. 22, 2008. Brent gained 9.2 percent this week.
JPMorgan also changed its estimates for West Texas Intermediate in the U.S., increasing the 2011 forecast by $4 to $97 a barrel and lowering the 2012 outlook by $1 to $103. The oil will likely average $96 a barrel in the first quarter of this year, the report showed. Oil has averaged $89.47 so far this quarter.
Oil for April delivery gained 60 cents, or 0.6 percent, to settle at $97.88 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil touched $103.41 yesterday, the highest intraday price since Sept. 29, 2008.