Analysts' oil price forecasts for 2011-2012

Azerbaijan , Baku, April 29 /Trend, A. Badalova/

The changes of international oil prices were differently directed yesterday. While North Sea Brent price decreased, WTI price has reached its 31-year peak.

Following the results of Thursday, March 28 trades, WTI June futures at NYMEX rose by $0.1 to $112.86 a barrel. Brent June futures at LSE decreased by $0.11 to $125.02 a barrel.

WTI price increased due to the fall of US dollar's rate after a statement by US Fed Chief, which can be assessed as a hint that interest rates in the US will remain minimal at least within several next months. The fall of US dollar's rate also was caused by low, as compared to expected, paces of growth of the US economy in the first quarter: 1.8 percent. As viewed by analysts of Capital Economics, one of the leading UK consulting firms specialized in economic researches, the slowdown of the paces of economic growth in the country is caused mostly by increase of energy prices, unfavourable weather conditions, and a significant cut of state expenditure.

As forecasted by Capital Economics , Brent prices will fall to $85 a barrel by the end of 2011 and subsequently to $75 a barrel in 2012.

"The growing international demand in oil in the beginning of the year pushed the prices toward $100 a barrel, and the political events in Libya increased the premium for geopolitical risk. Nevertheless, the growing gasoline price will weaken consumer demand and may also trigger an increase of interest rates of several central banks," the UK analysts said. Partially for this reason, the analysts expect oil prices to fall to $85 a barrel by the end of this year.

As forecasted by Germany's Deutsche Bank, Brent price will oscillate from $115 to $125 a barrel in 2011. Following the results of 2011, Brent price will average $117.5 a barrel at a time when WTI price will average $107.75 a barrel, Deutsche Bank said.

Though oil prices currently tend to grow, analysts of US Goldman Sachs expect Brent price to decrease from $125 a barrel at the moment to $105 a barrel before the end of the year.

As forecasted by the US Energy Information Agency (EIA), this year WTI price will make up $106 a barrel, an increase of $5 a barrel against the EIA last month forecast. As for 2012, the EIA increased WTI price forecast up to $114 a barrel.

Last months, JP Morgan analysts increased the forecast of Brent prices up to $110 a barrel in 2011 and 2012 due to the unceasing political unrest in the Middle East and North Africa. According to JP Morgan, WTI price will average $99 a barrel in 2011 and $104 a barrel in 2012.

Oil prices forecast for 2011-2012 (in $/barrel)



Capital Economics

85 (B)

75 (B)

Deutsche bank

117 .5 (B)

107 .75 (W)


Goldman Sachs

105 (B)



106 (W)

114 (W)

JP Morgan

110 (B)

99 (W)

110 (B)

104 (W)


B - Brent

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