JP Morgan expects global oil demand growth at 1 mln bpd in 2012

Oil&Gas Materials 15 May 2012 16:04 (UTC +04:00)

Azerbaijan, Baku, May 15 / Trend A.Badalova /

Global oil demand will increase by 1 million barrels per day (bpd) to 88.9 million bpd in 2012, the analysts of the large U.S. bank JP Morgan predict.

"Downward revisions to demand in January, and a relatively weak February performance, despite very cold temperatures in Europe and Asia leave global oil demand growing by only 340,000 bpd yoy in the first quarter of 2012," analysts say in their monthly oil market report.

Analysts predict European demand to fall by 350,000 bpd in 2012, following on a 320,000 bpd decline in 2011.

According to the analysts' forecasts, demand in the countries of Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) will amount to 45.4 mln bpd, in non-OECD countries - to 44.4 mln bpd in 2012.

Analysts expect world oil demand at 91.2 million bpd in 2013.

According to the forecasts, in 2013, oil demand in the OECD countries will amount to 45.3 mln bpd, non-OECD countries - 45.9 mln bpd.

According to the forecasts, oil demand in Asia will be 29.5 million bpd in 2012 and 30.3 million bpd in 2013. Most of the oil demand will fell to China - 10 million bpd in 2012 and 10.5 million barrels per day in 2013.

Oil supplies by OPEC

JP Morgan analysts forecast an increase in OPEC oil supply by 1.5 to 31.2 million bpd in 2012 compared to 29.7 million bpd in 2011. According to analysts' expectations, OPEC will decrease oil supplies by 0.2 million to 31 million bpd in 2013.

OPEC production in April is estimated at a four year high of 31.3 million bpd.

"While this level of output is only 0.1 mbd higher than March, it is 2.5 mbd higher than a year earlier, when Libyan outages had yet to be met with a sufficient response from the rest of OPEC," analysts say.

Global oil supply is predicted by analysts at 90.2 million bpd in 2012 and 91.4 million bpd in 2013.

Oil supply by non-OPEC countries

According to the JP Morgan's analysts, oil supply by non-OPEC countries will rise by 0.2 million barrels to 50.8 million bpd in 2012 and by 1.3 million bpd to 52.1 million bpd in 2013.

"Non-OPEC supply estimates are lowered this month by 0.4 million bpd for 2012 and 0.3 million bpd for 2013, as the impact of outages in Syria, South Sudan and at the Frade Field in Brazil lower growth to a minimal 0.2 million bpd for the year.," analysts said.

According to the analysts' forecasts, oil production in the former Soviet Union (FSU) countries will amount to 13.5 mln bpd in 2012 and 2013.

Middle East countries' production will amount to 1.4 million bpd in 2012 and to 1.6 mln bpd 2013.