Azerbaijan, Baku, May 16 / Trend A.Badalova /
Global Energy Studies Centre (CGES) predicts Brent price to fall towards $100 per barrel by late 2012.
"With OPEC oil production averaging 31.5 million barrels per day (bpd) during the first half of the year, global oil inventories will rise sharply, putting prices under downward pressure as the year progresses," CGES said in its report.
In this case CGES expects Brent price to remain close to $120 per barrel through the second quarter of 2012, falling towards $100 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2012. However CGES believes that OPEC will prevent prices from further falling by cutting output back to just over 30 million bpd.
CGES predicts average Brent price at $111 barrel per day in 2012.
Following the auction on May 15, the price on Brent futures for June increased by $0.67 a barrel up to $112.24 per barrel. The cost of WTI futures for June on the New York Mercantile Exchange decreased by $0.8 percent to $93.98 per barrel.
Today, concerns over the possible deepening of debt crisis in eurozone remain the main reason for drop in oil prices.
CGES said that increasing Saudi Arabian production during the first quarter of the year has contributed to the world's first significant quarterly stock build since 2008. However, at present oil prices continue to be supported by low stock cover and on-going concerns regarding the possibility of a major disruption to Iranian exports in the summer, CGES believes.
According to CGES forecasts, global oil demand will increase by by 820,000 bpd in 2012. Non-OPEC oil supply is predicted to increase by 440,000 bpd in 2012.
"With OPEC oil production averaging 31.5 million bpd during the first half of the year, global oil inventories will rise sharply, putting prices under downward pressure as the year progresses," CGES believes.