Azerbaijan, Baku, Feb. 14 / Trend E. Kosolapova/
The resumption of direct deliveries of Turkmen gas to Ukraine is unlikely in the near future, a senior oil and gas analyst at Uralsib Capital Alexei Kokin said.
According to the expert, such deliveries are to be carried out through transportation system of Russian Gazprom company, which will not agree with this transportation option.
"This is not likely at the moment. Gazprom has the right to block such an option. The matter rests not in Gazprom. This is an interstate problem. There is a bargain between Ukraine and Russia, the argument of which is the Russian-Ukrainian gas agreement," Kokin said.
He said the Russian and Ukrainian interpretations of agreements between Gazprom and Ukraine on gas supplies vary. And the Turkmen issue is directly related to the matter of its interpretation.
"According to the interpretation of Gazprom, the Turkmen gas is not to be delivered toUkraine, as the gas will be bought from Gazprom. Gazprom must first agree to reduce supplies of its own gas to Ukraine. Afterwards, the resumption of Turkmen gas supplies can be considered," he said.
At the same time, Kiev convinces its opponents in Moscow that there is a section in CIS free trade zone agreement that provides for equal access to gas transmission facilities of the CIS countries.
"However, agreements within the CIS do not work to full extent in this matter. Russia creates a more dense structure within the CIS, in its customs area, where agreements are of more obligatory nature. Maybe Ukraine will apply to some international courts in attempt to receive the right for such transportation" Kokin said.
However, as the expert noted, it is doubtful that Ukraine will win the case in the international court, referring to some free trade agreements.
Kokin said Turkmenistan is interested in the resumption of these supplies, as Ukraine is a very good sales market. At the same time, losing such a profitable sales market is unprofitable for Gazprom.
"The most profitable segment of the market for Gazprom is Ukraine, not Europe. Net price excluding transportation costs for Ukraine turns out to be higher than for European consumers," the expert said.
Earlier, the Naftogaz of Ukraine National Joint Stock Company and the Turkmengaz State Concern signed a memorandum of understanding providing for activation of bilateral cooperation in the oil and gas sector and resumption of gas supplies to Ukraine and Europe.
The direct deliveries of Turkmen gas to Ukraine were suspended in 2006. In recent years, Russia re-exports Turkmen gas, including for Ukraine's needs.