Azerbaijan, Baku, April 11 / Trend E. Kooslapova/
Kashagan is currently the only oil field capable of significantly boosting oil production in Kazakhstan. Thus, increase in oil production completely depends on the start of the Kashagan production, Senior Scientific Associate of the Economics Institute under Kazakh Education and Science Ministry Oleg Yegorov believes.
"We have rested all our hopes on Kashagan. Kashagan was scheduled to be launched in March. However, it is the middle of April already. Oil production has been delayed four times at this field. There is no assurance that Kashagan will be launched in summer or fall. In this regard, some concerns have been expressed that oil production will not grow," Yegorov told Trend by phone on Thursday.
Earlier, Kazakh Oil and Gas Ministry lowered forecast for oil and gas production and oil refining in 2013-2015.
"Earlier, it was expected to start oil production at Kashagan from 500,000 tons and then raise this level to 40-60 million. All former forecasts were based on sharp and quick production increase at this field. But this forecasts did not come true," Yegorov said.
The expert doubts Kazakhstan will be able to intensify production dramatically at this field in a short period due to its difficult structure and offshore location.
According to Yegorov, Kazakhstan is not increasing, but rather reducing its oil production at the moment.
"In 2012 we produced less oil compared to the 2011 results," he said.
According to the expert, lower oil production will restrict Kazakhstan's oil export capacity, and Kazakhstan's budget and national fund will lose a significant part of the income as a result. Moreover, low oil production will reduce oil processing within the country and may lead to fuel shortage in Kazakhstan.
"According to the existing agreement, Russia will supply duty free up to 7 million tons of oil to the Pavlodar refinery per year up to 2014. Meanwhile the Atyrau and Shymkent refineries may face crude oil shortage. Although, they do not work at designed capacity even now," he said.
In this case, Kazakhstan can increase gasoline and diesel fuel import from Russia, Yegorov believes.
Kashagan is one of the largest fields discovered in the past 40 years. According to the analysts, it has the potential to unite the top five largest oil companies in the world. Kazakh geologists estimate geological oil reserves at 4.8 billion tons. According to the project operator, total oil reserves are 38 billion barrels (six billion tons), with a recoverable volume of about 10 billion barrels. Natural gas reserves are estimated at over one trillion cubic meters.
The Kashagan project current participants are Eni, Royal Dutch Shell, Exxon Mobil, Total and KazMunaiGas, which owns equal shares (16.81 per cent), as well as ConocoPhillips - 8.4 per cent and Japan's Inpex - 7.55 per cent.