Baku, Azerbaijan, June 1
By Aygun Badalova - Trend:
The willingness of OPEC to shift strategy back to one of defending price remains dependant on a broader cooperation from non-aligned exporters, who thus far have yet to signal any intention to cooperate, analysts of the US JP Morgan bank said in a report obtained by Trend.
Thus, analysts believe that OPEC output levels will remain considerably in excess of the agreed 30 million barrels per day (bpd) production target for the next 18 months.
Earlier OPEC and representatives of countries outside the cartel, such as Azerbaijan, Russia, Brazil and Mexico failed to agree on joint oil production decline at the meeting held in May.
Meanwhile, production volume of oil and gas condensate in Azerbaijan in January-April 2015 totaled 14.21 million metric tons, or 0.4 percent more than in the same period of 2014, according to the country's State Statistics Committee.
The major part of oil and gas production in Azerbaijan accounts for the Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli oil and gas fields' block and Shah Deniz gas condensate field that are developed jointly with foreign partners.
JP Morgan's analysts forecast non-OPEC oil production at 54.7 million bpd in 2015 and 54.2 million bpd in 2016.
OPEC member states will hold the next meeting in Vienna, June 5 to discuss the current situation in the oil market and adopt decisions on the cartel's oil production quota. Currently, OPEC's oil production quota stands at 30 million barrels per day.
Consensus expectations for the early-June OPEC meeting are that the governments will roll over the 30 million bpd production target, according to JP Morgan's analysts.
"While our expectations are for exactly that result, we see such an agreement as largely superficial to the shift in output policy enacted by Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern producers after the last meeting to defend, or indeed grow, market share," they said.