Baku, Azerbaijan, Oct. 15
By Elena Kosolapova - Trend:
Russian gas from Turkish Stream pipeline will be competitive in the EU in case of attractive price, expert on the energy politics of the European University in St. Petersburg Daniel Tappeiner believes.
Tappeiner noted in the interview with Trend that projections don't foresee strong increases in European gas demand and thus requirements for Turkish Stream capacity. However, he expects that Russian gas will be a very competitive fuel in Europe on a marginal cost basis and thus demand in the long-term is positive.
Last week The Vice President of the European Commission, in charge of Energy Union Maros Sefcovic said that the EU's gas import dependency is projected at around 380-450 billion cubic meters per year by 2030 - at about the current level.
The expert noted that taking further into consideration that substantial up-front costs (planning and hardware) for the Turkish Stream project have already been incurred and that the project will allow Turkey to see its infrastructure position improved (trading, infrastructure hub).
On the other side, Russia's involvement in Syria will affect relations between Turkey and Russia in general and bilateral negotiations on Turkish Stream in particular, according to Tappeiner, in spite of the fact that it is not entirely clear, whether Russian military actions must run counter to Turkish interests, he said.
Meanwhile, the expert noted that Turkish foreign policy has often demonstrated to be oriented less by ideology but rather by pragmatism which should favor the Turkish Stream project if the economics speaks for it.
Tappeiner expects that rapprochement between the EU and Russia with easing of tensions in Ukraine and support for Turkish Stream 2 will improve Russia's bargaining position vis-a-vis Turkey.
At the same time, he stressed that in an optimal scenario for Russia, Asian and European gas markets may be developed in parallel, as far as state and enterprise investment budgets allow.
The Turkish Stream project includes the construction of a gas pipeline from Russia to Turkey via the Black Sea. It was assumed that the gas pipeline would consist of four branches at 15.75 billion cubic meters of gas each.
The gas of the first branch is completely designed for the Turkish market. The rest amount will be supplied to the Turkish-Greek border, where it is planned to create a gas hub. The construction was planned to begin in June, but the project is still being discussed.
At the moment, the negotiations between Turkey and Russia on the Turkish Stream are frozen. Many experts expect that the negotiations on the project may resume after the creations of the new government in Turkey after the early parliamentary elections scheduled for November 1. Currently Turkey has interim government.
Edited by T.T.
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