Baku, Azerbaijan, June 30
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
It is not realistic for the US to become a net oil exporter in the next 20 years, Spencer Welch, director of the oil markets and downstream team in the London-based IHS Markit, told Trend June 30.
He was commenting on the statement made by the US President Donald Trump that the US is on the brink of a new energy revolution.
“The biggest question is whether they can become a net exporter of oil. Currently the US produces 9 million barrels of oil per day and consumes around 16 million barrels per day, so a net importer of 7 million barrels per day. This is a huge gap to close,” said the expert. “We expect US production to increase to 12-13 million barrels per day but this will take until mid-2020s.”
US oil demand is not going to decline by 3-4 million barrels per day, this would take more than 20 years, said Welch, adding that in short it is not realistic for the US to become a net oil exporter in the next 20 years.
He also talked about the possible impact of Trump’s new energy policy on the efforts of OPEC and some non-OPEC countries to balance the oil market.
“US shale oil/tight oil production is growing fast again from a low of 8.6 million barrels per day in mid-2016 to 9.3 million barrels per day now, and will go above 10 million barrels per day in 2018. US production growth, along with growth from Canada, Brazil, the North Sea and a recovering in Nigerian and Libyan production, is neutralizing the OPEC/non-OPEC supply cut coalition efforts,” added the expert.
He pointed out that no price recovery should be expected until 2019 at the earliest.
At the same time, Welch noted that the US is currently balanced in terms of gas imports/exports, but will very soon become a net exporter as production increases.
Earlier, Trump hailed an energy revolution marked by surging US exports of oil and natural gas.
Trump cited a series of steps the administration has taken to boost energy production and remove government regulations that he argues prevent the United States from achieving “energy dominance” in the global market.
“Together, we are going to start a new energy revolution — one that celebrates American production on American soil,” Trump said in a statement, adding that the US is on the brink of becoming a net exporter of oil, gas and other energy resources.
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