Baku, Azerbaijan, Nov. 28
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
Growth of global oil demand will slow down significantly by 2030, George Kobulia, senior partner at McKinsey & Company, global management consulting company, said at the fourth international conference entitled “Oil refining and petrochemistry of the Caspian Sea and Central Asia” in Baku on Nov. 28.
He said that the slowdown in GDP growth and reduction in the worldwide oil intensity will limit the growth in demand for oil in the long term.
Despite the slowdown in oil consumption growth, increase in processing capacities continues at accelerating rates, the expert added.
Kobulia noted that the growth of primary processing capacities will be concentrated in Asia and the Middle East.
A significant portion of Middle Eastern oil products will be exported to South Asia, further increasing the glut of the market in this region, Kobulia said.
According to forecasts, by 2025, the net increase in imports of light oil products in Southeast Asia will be 628,000 barrels per day by limiting the maximum load of Asian energy hubs at 78 percent.
Despite the fact that global production of fuel oil with sulfur of less than 0.5 percent can satisfy all demand for bunker fuel, it will be impossible to mobilize all these volumes, he noted.
In the baseline scenario, global refining volumes increase by 2.5 million barrels per day, added Kobulia.