Baku, Azerbaijan, Dec. 8
By Gulgiz Muradova - Trend:
Turkmen gas supplies to Europe via the Trans Caspian Pipeline (TCP) would not really threaten Russia’s access to the European gas market, Bruce Pannier, US expert on Central Asia and energy issues, told Trend.
Pannier was commenting on the developments around the Caspian Sea Legal Status, which is the main obstacle to realization of the TCP project that has been disused for more than 20 years.
Previously, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov announced that the draft convention on the status of the Caspian Sea is almost ready and will be approved by the presidents at the next summit in 2018.
Later Azerbaijani Deputy Foreign Minister Khalaf Khalafov said that the draft convention on the legal status of the Caspian Sea also includes the issue of pipelines construction, adding that the TCP issue will be coordinated with the countries through which the pipelines is to pass.
Pannier noted that the TCP would carry 30 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas, so by the time a TCP could be built it would represent a welcome addition to Europe’s gas supplies, but would not really threaten Russia’s access to the European gas market.
He reminded that Russia already has Nord Stream-1, bringing some 55 bcm of gas to Europe and Nord Stream-2 and Turkish Stream are under construction. The combined capacity of the three Russian pipelines would be some 141.5 bcm of gas.
Coming back to the draft convention on the status of the Caspian Sea, Pannier said that still not a lot about this convention is known, particularly what kind of agreements are needed for one or two parties to construct a major pipeline across the Caspian seabed.
It could be that the same objections Russia and Iran have been raising for years about possible environmental consequences will still be relevant under the convention the five littoral countries seem to be close to approving, he said.
"If Russia and Iran had no objections to the construction of the TCP, Turkmenistan, and presumably the EU and Azerbaijan, would have start the process of conducting feasibility studies, hold tenders for pipe, equipment, construction companies, and so on. Actual work could not start on the pipeline for probably a couple of years," Pannier said.
Then, according to the expert, if everything should somehow all fall into place and work perfectly, the pipeline could probably be launched in 2021 or 2022.
"But I think there would be many obstacles and delays, and questions about what to do with 30 bcm of Turkmen gas when it reaches the western side of the Caspian Sea," he said.
He reminded that there is not currently, nor will there be anytime soon, 30 bcm of extra capacity in the pipeline networks running from Azerbaijan to Europe.
"The Trans-Anatolian Pipeline (TANAP) is under construction and won’t have 30 bcm of capacity until 2026, but anyway TANAP is being built to carry Azerbaijani gas. So besides the TCP there will need to be other pipelines built to carry Turkmen gas westward. This is all going to take time and while this is happening Russia will probably complete Nord Stream-2 and Turkish Stream," he said.
Another possibility is Turkmenistan's exporting gas via Russian pipelines instead of building the TCP.
Pannier reminded that Russia and Turkmenistan have been in talks a lot lately., while Turkmengaz chief Myrat Archayev said in early November it might be possible for Turkmenistan to export gas to other CIS countries and to Europe using Russian pipelines.
"Turkmenistan could then start receiving revenues very soon as opposed to waiting years for the TCP to be built and reach maximum capacity. Russia would not have to worry about a competing (non-Russian) pipeline to Europe and would have control over how much gas Turkmenistan could export," he said.
Meanwhile, the European Commission told Trend that its engagement continues with Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan, both in bilateral and multilateral format, towards enabling Turkmen gas deliveries to the European markets in view of the potential expansion of the Southern Gas Corridor to Central Asia.
The Southern Gas Corridor is one of the priority energy projects for the EU. It envisages the transportation of gas from the Caspian region to the European countries through Georgia and Turkey.
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