Baku, Azerbaijan, Sept.25
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
The implied medium-term demand for OPEC crude declines from 32.6 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2017 to 31.6 mb/d in 2023, the cartel said in its World Oil Outlook (WOO) 2018.
From 2017–2018 levels of around 32.5 mb/d, demand rises marginally, to reach a peak of 32.7 mb/d in 2020, surging temporarily due to new IMO shipping regulations (and a short-lived run of more crude in the global refining system), said the report.
But thereafter, according to OPEC’s estimations, declining demand for OPEC crude is a result of strong non-OPEC supply in the 2017–2023 period, most notably from US tight oil, in addition to some other sources.
Demand for OPEC crude only returns to 2017 levels by the late 2020s, when US tight oil peaks, and rises steadily thereafter, the cartel believes.
“By the end of the forecast period in 2040, demand for OPEC crude is projected to average nearly 40 mb/d. The share of OPEC crude in the global oil supply is expected to increase from 34 percent in 2017 to 36 percent by 2040,” said the report.
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