Baku, Azerbaijan, Feb.19
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
The demand for energy is set to increase significantly driven by increases in prosperity in the developing world, Trend reports citing BP Energy Outlook 2019.
In all the scenarios considered, world GDP more than doubles by 2040 driven by increasing prosperity in fast-growing developing economies.
In the Evolving transition (ET) scenario this improvement in living standards causes energy demand to increase by around a third over the Outlook, driven by India, China and Other Asia which together account for two-thirds of the increase.
Despite this increase in energy demand, around two-thirds of the world’s population in 2040 still live in countries where average energy consumption per head is relatively low, highlighting the need for ‘more energy’.
Natural gas grows strongly, supported by broad-based demand, plentiful low-cost supplies, and the increasing availability of gas globally, aided by the growing supplies of liquefied natural gas (LNG).
In the ET scenario, natural gas grows at an average rate of 1.7 percent p.a. - increasing nearly 50 percent by 2040 - the only source of energy, along with renewables, whose share in primary energy increases over the Outlook,
Growth in gas demand is widespread, increasing in almost every country and region considered in the Outlook. The increase is driven in broadly equal amounts by use in power and industry. Transport records the fastest growth, albeit with small volumes.
Global gas production is led by the US and Middle East (Qatar and Iran) – who together account for almost 50 percent of the growth in gas production over the Outlook – supported by strong increases in output in both China and Russia.
Energy consumed within industry and buildings accounts for around three-quarters of the increase in energy demand.
Growth in transport demand slows sharply relative to the past, as gains in vehicle efficiency accelerate. The share of passenger vehicle kilometres powered by electricity increases to around 25 percent by 2040, supported by the growing importance of fully-autonomous cars and shared-mobility services.
Follow the author on Twitter: @Lyaman_Zeyn