Baku, Azerbaijan, July 12
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
Global demand growth is set to accelerate from an exceptionally weak 310 kb/d in 1Q19 and 800 kb/d in 2Q19 to reach 1.8 mb/d in the second half of the year as economic activity improves and petrochemical plants ramp up, Trend reports citing the Oil Market Report of the International Energy Agency (IEA).
For 2020, the pace of growth will average 1.4 mb/d compared to 1.2 mb/d this year, reads the report.
“Concerns that global oil demand is slowing caused ICE Brent to decline by 10 percent in June, despite supportive geopolitical factors. Gasoline cracks picked up following a refinery fire on the US Atlantic Coast,” said IEA.
“The outlook for oil demand growth in 2019 is little changed from our last Report at 1.2 mb/d. On the basis that the economic outlook in 2020 is better, there will be a rebound to 1.4 mb/d. This is despite the fact that we have downgraded our estimate for global oil demand growth in 2Q19 by 0.45 mb/d. There are many reasons for this: European demand is sluggish; growth in India vanished in April and May due to a slowdown in LPG deliveries and weakness in the aviation sector; and in the US demand for both gasoline and diesel in the first half of 2019 is lower year-on-year,” the report says.
IEA believes that unless the economic backdrop and the trade disputes worsen, global growth is nevertheless expected to be higher in 2H19. “There will be support from oil prices, which, if they stay roughly where they are today, will be about 8 percent below the levels seen last year.”
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