Baku, Azerbaijan, Aug.16
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
Non-OPEC oil supply growth is expected to drop to 1.97 million barrels per day year-on-year in 2019, Trend reports citing OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – August 2019.
“The non-OPEC oil supply growth forecast for 2019 was revised down by 72 tb/d from the previous monthly report to 1.97 mb/d y-o-y and average 64.39 mb/d. The main reasons for this downward revision are lower-than-expected oil production in the US, Brazil, Thailand and Norway in 1H19,” reads the report.
The cartel said that these downward revisions were partially offset by higher production in Canada in 2Q19, as the government of Alberta eased their mandatory production adjustments.
“Despite declining crude oil production in May, US liquids output was up by 53 tb/d, to average 18.30 mb/d. However, US oil supply growth in 2019 was revised down to 1.87 mb/d, to average 18.56 mb/d, due to lower-than-expected production in 2Q19 as well as a downward revision to historical production data in 1Q19. The US, Brazil, China, the UK, Australia and Canada are the key drivers of growth in 2019 while Mexico and Norway are projected to see the largest declines,” reads the report.
As OPEC said, the non-OPEC oil supply growth forecast for 2020 was also revised down by 50 tb/d from last month’s assessment and is now projected to grow by 2.39 mb/d for an average of 66.78 mb/d.
“This is mainly due to the downward revision in Brazil’s oil supply forecast. The US, Brazil, Norway, Russia, Canada, Kazakhstan and Australia are expected to be the main growth drivers for next year, while Mexico, Indonesia Egypt the UK and Colombia, are forecast to see the largest declines. The 2020 non-OPEC supply forecast remains subject to many uncertainties, including oil price movements, investment discipline, infrastructure debottlenecking in North America, drilling and completion (D&C) costs, unplanned outages, delayed start-ups and unexpected maintenance duration,” the report says.
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